Worlds round 3 überpöst

Figure while I've got a bunch of time I'll just go through the whole of the last 32 in bracket order to get all the tips out to be able to enjoy the games without scrambling around to get tips out throughout the next couple of days. If anyone gets a bit of a cold in the next couple of days and the PDC forces them out, then I'll obv update, but for now let's go.

Price/Huybrechts (Monday evening) - Price averaged pretty well but still lost a set to Edhouse, who was playing decently enough, so think despite the lack of a 3-0 score it's fair to say Gerwyn's on it well enough. Kim looked a bit clunky against Beaton (disrupted travel could well have something to do with that in fairness), but Steve was down a fair bit from the first round level as well, would imagine Kim will up his game in this one. Market has Gerwyn at a couple of ticks over 80%, that's maybe a slight overestimate given I see Kim at around 21-22% to take it, but factor in the relative second round performances and this looks fine to me.

Smith/van Duijvenbode (Monday afternoon) - Ross was forced to five sets against Bunting but really should have wrapped it up much easier, the game just disappeared after around five legs after being in complete control. Dirk was also pushed to five sets by Koltsov, so it's a bit mutual in terms of being perhaps not at their best in round two. Smith in round one wasn't exactly setting the world on fire average-wise, but was getting no help from Jeff averaging below 80. Market can't split them, I give the tiniest of edges to Smith, but it's only like he wins 3% more often than Dirk so not being able to get either of them at evens makes this another easy pass.

Clayton/Clemens (Monday evening) - Jonny got into one of the games of the tournament so far against Keane Barry, but you never really felt he was in trouble of losing it, while Gabriel swept Lewy Williams who didn't show up, Clemens averaging 86 being enough to sweep it in straight sets. Market has this at a similar price to the Price game, that seems fine as I see Gabriel claiming it 18% of the time. So no bets yet.

Smith/O'Connor (Monday afternoon) - Michael had the highest average so far in rolling over Ron Meulenkamp, while Willie got into a real battle with Danny Lauby before doing the expected against Glen Durrant. Market sees this as 75/25, that seems close to spot on once more. Smith's at 77% season long, perhaps that should be a little bit lower given Willie's improved his form over the last two to three months, but Michael's first round performance probably offsets it. May also be hard for Willie to turn it back on to where he was at in round one after not being tested in round two.

Wade/van der Voort (Monday evening) - James took out Maik Kuivenhoven in four sets despite what many would call a BDO level average, while Vincent needed just the three sets to eliminate Adam Hunt, also not needing to average over 90. Wade comes in as a moderate favourite in the 60-65% range (slightly nearer the higher end), and this is the first one where we can think about betting. My projection gives van der Voort about 45%. There's a bit more inconsistency in Vincent's game which will temper that slightly, but James did his best work in early season when he binked the UK Open. This is very close, 6/4 is widely available and one random bookie is doing 8/5, I think 13/8 is worth the shot but not at this stage. I'll add this on if the line moves in our favour in a separate post.

Edit 27/12 15:10 - Vincent's been forced out of the tournament with a bit of a cold. Fuck Boris.

Cullen/Kleermaker (Tuesday afternoon) - Joe was pushed to the limit by Jim Williams but managed to scrape over the line, while Martijn, after a comfortable enough win against John Michael, took down Simon Whitlock in a bit of a scrappy game. Joe is a huge favourite in the market with over a 75% implied chance of winning, I was expecting the model to spit out a bet on Kleermaker here, but the length of the game is such that he's only actually at 26%. If this price was available on the Pro Tour it's a bet, but the game is long enough that Cullen takes it home that much more.

Hempel/Smith (Monday afternoon) - Florian pulled out the biggest shock in terms of seedings by eliminating Dimitri van den Bergh after surprisingly sweeping Martin Schindler (the sweep being the surprise, not necessarily the result) in round one, while Raymond is the last international qualifier left standing following an opportunistic win over Jamie Hughes and a sweep of the out of form Devon Petersen. Market thinks Raymond is at around the 35% marker, and this is a hard one to project given the lack of data - the model says Hempel at 82%, but that's only on 19 won legs. Smith, in the ten he's lost, is actually scoring a point and a half higher, so maybe the projection would be closer if he'd been allowed to convert some of those. It still kind of feels like a Hempel bet though - 0.25u Hempel 4/9, I will just go with the standard sizing given the lack of data on Smith, but I think he gets found out often enough when running into a top 32 calibre player, which is what Florian is statistically.

Lennon/King (Tuesday afternoon) - Steve pulled off possibly the biggest upset in terms of Elo rankings when he eliminated Ratajski, Steve's been playing better than his results suggest all year, but he converted it into a result when it mattered most, following a swingy victory over Madars Razma. King was in a world of trouble against Joyce before running off a billion straight legs to advance. Seems like King has a little bit more than a 60% shot to take this one on my projections, so I think we can bet here - 0.25u Lennon 2/1, this is just about enough value to go for it, there is no inconsistency difference to speak of when compared to the Wade/VVDV game so I think this is fine to go with. There's actually slightly longer available on one fringe bookie if you want to punt on whatever a Spreadex is.

Wright/Heta (Tuesday evening) - Wright was solid enough against Meikle and won in straight sets with Ryan averaging sub-80, Heta was given a decent enough test against Luke Woodhouse but came through in four with the better average than Wright. We know Damon's extremely dangerous and the projections reflect this, coming up at 40% against one of the big three - which the market wildly disagrees with. 0.25u Heta 13/5, 11/4 is available in one place but this price is more widely available, it wouldn't be any shock if Peter is taken out at this stage for the second straight year.

Searle/Noppert (Tuesday afternoon) - Potential match of the round between two players very closely seeded together, both in the top sixteen of year long scoring with Noppert being top ten. Ryan cruised against Borland who fell off a cliff in terms of quality after the nine in round one, Noppert got into a bit of a missed doubles fest against Jason Heaver but got over the line in the end. Ryan's a small favourite in the market which is understandable given how well he played at Minehead and given Danny's been a bit unconvincing in the first game, I see it as more flippy with Noppert taking this 4-5% more often than Searle does. Is 11/8 enough? I think so. 0.25u Noppert 11/8

de Sousa/Soutar (Wednesday afternoon) - Two players that needed deciding sets, de Sousa never really looked in trouble as long as Jason Lowe couldn't keep his red hot start going, while Soutar looked way off early against Suljovic before turning it around thanks to a bunch of missed darts from Mensur. Market has Jose in the low 70's, this is fine, maybe Jose should be a few ticks more of a favourite actually.

Aspinall/Rydz (Wednesday afternoon) - Nathan struggled to get over the line against Joe Murnan and survived a match dart which would have been a big shock, while Rydz has rolled off six straight sets, looking fantastic against Dolan in a match where both averaged over 100. Market still has Nathan as a favourite, but only just, being able to get 8/11. That equates to needing 58% to be break even, and I see the match at 64%, so this is kind of close to a punt on Nathan here, but I'll pass on doing so just given on how off he looked in the first round, and how comfortable Rydz has been looking.

van Gerwen/Dobey (Tuesday evening) - Michael needed four sets to dispose of Chas Barstow after giving one away, didn't look in top gear but he didn't need to be, while Dobey looked a little under par and was given a good test by Rusty Jake Rodriguez before getting over the line in the deciding set. Michael is the better player, but not by much, and this line is hugely under representing Chris' chances in this one. 0.25u Dobey 7/2, that indicates less than a one in four chance to win. I see over 40%, even after taking off a couple of points for added inconsistency.

Edit 28/12 17:55 - Michael's been forced out of the tournament as well. Fuck Boris.

Chisnall/Humphries (Wednesday afternoon) - Dave took down de Decker in straight sets with a solid performance, while Luke also won out 3-0 to dispose of Rowby John Rodriguez. The market has no way to separate them with both being slightly odds on, my model is actually saying Chisnall 60/40, but I think that's a false read based on consistency. Luke's got one of the best consistency scores in the world at under 1.5, while Dave is closer to six than five - I think that's enough to push the projection enough where I don't have confidence in a bet.

Anderson/White (Wednesday evening) - Gary eliminated Adrian Lewis in a forgettable game, White did the same to Chris Landman. Both players season long look extremely close statistically, it's the closest thing to 50/50 I've seen for a long time. So we'll take the dog, 0.25u White 7/4, combination of the market still loving Anderson for seemingly popularity reasons alone and continuing to underrate Ian (although he has at least been lacking results comparable to performances this year) makes this a play.

Cross/Gurney (Tuesday evening) - Rob didn't need to do a great deal after Barney fell apart after one set, Gurney also came through in four sets in a fun tie against Ricky Evans. Market is leaning Cross around 60/40, maybe that's underrating Daryl a bit, Cross has scoring about a point better but the construction of that is Daryl having comparable winning legs but more inconsistency - projection says Gurney up at 48%, so can certainly think about Daryl at 6/4. Will pass just about, given on Rob's upswing in form in the last quarter and given that consistency rating. Wouldn't discourage a bet here, I just don't think there's quite enough confidence to go with it.

So that's the lot, will update if there's anything weird going on and when we get some last 16 lineups and lines confirmed.

Worlds day 9 tips

May as well get the last of round 2 out of the way while I've got a little bit of time to work with.

Heta/Woodhouse rates to be a moderately easy tie for Damon, Luke's someone who I thought would lose in the first round but a combination of a better than expected display and Wilson underperforming saw him pull through, such is the level of Damon's game that this looks 75/25 - so a little bit more in favour of Heta than the market which places the line at 2/5. It's close to the edge I'd be looking for but isn't quite there.

Dolan/Rydz could be spectacular as two players just outside the top 16 in scoring for the season collide, Dolan slightly higher. Callan came through a trivial matchup against Yamada, didn't really need to get out of first gear to win that one. Market has Dolan shading this in a 55/45 sort of tie, that looks close enough to correct for me, maybe Callan's slightly closer but Dolan is the favourite.

Suljovic/Soutar is the exact same line with Mensur being the favourite, Alan getting in a spot of bother against Diogo Portela who was hitting some real nice legs in that one. Again, the line looks close to spot on, maybe Mensur is ever so slightly overvalued at 4/5 but he is the favourite - just.

de Sousa/Lowe closes the afternoon, Jose could probably wrap up a Premier League place with a couple of wins given Dimitri might have just played himself out of it, Lowe was an easy victor over a fairly poor Larsson, this is a huge step up in class and the market gives him no more than a 30% shot at this one. This feels like the first game where it's maybe not quite shaded enough in the favour of Jose, you can get 1/3 in a couple of places but he's nearer 1/4 for me. Again like the first one the edge isn't quite there, if you're an addict who must have a bet on every session then a Heta/de Sousa double won't exactly cost you.

Noppert/Heaver opens the evening session, Danny having lost most of his value over the last six months and comes in as more of an odds on favourite than either of Damon or Jose at 2/7. Jason took care of Mathers over the weekend in a bit of a grindy match and only took three legs in fifteen darts, that's not going to cut it against Noppert. I'll go with the bet given the odds on this one, 0.5u Noppert 2/7, we have a little bit more of a percentage edge than the other two, we've got 85% when we need 78% which given it's that short a price looks to be more than enough edge. Danny should really be 2/11 or 1/6.

Clemens/Williams sees Lewy return after dispatching another of the Japanese qualifiers relatively easily yesterday with a deceptively high average given just two of his nine won legs were in fifteen or fewer darts. Getting one in four visits and averaging 103 in the two legs he lost helps. Gabriel will be wanting to get this one done to give himself a good test against Clayton which might even be more formidable a task than he had last year despite him being seeded higher now, the market thinks he gets home just under 65% of the time, and that might be a little bit harsh on Williams. I see him as having slap bang in the middle of 40% and 45% to win it, which is close to making the 8/5 that Hills are offering worth it. Certainly wouldn't say Gabriel is acca safe in this one.

Cross/Barney is the clear tie of the round, Raymond looked very good in round one against Ilagan, and more importantly sounded happy and confident. Cross has hit form in the last few months, but looking at season long form, I can't separate the two players, it's a pure coin flip. The market doesn't agree, so I think this is a pretty easy play - 0.25u van Barneveld 6/4 is widely available and reflects a good 9% edge on projections.

Final round two game is Dobey and Rusty, Chris one of the best players this season in Pro Tour averages, Rusty also making a name for himself on both the Development Tour and the senior circuit, getting a surprisingly decent test from Ben Robb before advancing in three sets. Now the line is 75/25 Dobey, I don't know how much of that is the market catching up to quite how good Chris is playing, the market sleeping on Rusty, or both, I'd have expected it to be closer then we could play Dobey given I'm seeing 80/20. Wouldn't hate a Chris bet, I'm just a touch concerned about his TV performances this year where he managed to lose a game to O'Connor that he shouldn't have done, lose to Rusty's older brother in the Slam that cost him getting out of a group he really should have won with ease, and also exiting the Matchplay in round one. Probably one I look back and call myself stupid when Chris wins in straight sets.

Worlds day 8 tips

Nice to pin three bets, while all were odds on which will naturally favour hitting, it's always nice to steadily accumulate on favourites who are bigger favourites than what the market suggests. Couple of 3-0 results is fine, King nearly completely shat the bed, but god knows what happened to Joyce after he was up 2-0. I could have watched, I'm working from home so could easily have put the game on a different screen, but may be worth the rewatch. Let's go on to the penultimate day before Christmas.

Searle/Borland sees the nine dart hero come in as a significant underdog against the newest major finalist. While I loved what Willie did (we did back him after all), if anything he's actually overvalued in the market. It's not huge, Ryan should be 1/4 rather than 1/3, I see it as bang on 80/20. Not quite the edge to recommend a play given the marginal gains, but it appears acca safe.

Durrant/O'Connor has a pretty disturbing line of Glen being available at 5/1. I'm actually kind of tempted to suggest a micro play at that price, I'm chucking the projection out of the window given a combination of Durrant having an enormous inconsistency score combined with Willie coming into form at the back end of the year. I'm going to personally have a small punt for funking power, I honestly just hope this doesn't become an embarrassment, because Glen is better than that.

Humphries/Rowby should be fun. I'm fairly surprised by what the projection says - only 55/45 in Luke's favour. There is a fucking huge consistency issue here, Luke's score is down below one and a half (for newer readers, I take the losing average per turn away from the winning average per turn to try to get a read on consistency and/or players getting fucked over by running into good players) while Rowby's is up at over five and a half. 2/1 is a real tempter. But I won't be tempted.

Cullen/Williams closes the afternoon session. Line looks fine to me, would imagine that Jim is slightly more of a live dog than the line suggests, 9/4 or 5/2 might be closer to accurate than the 3/1 that's there, but it's not enough of an edge to really punt.

Aspinall/Murnan opens the evening session, and the one sided line looks OK. Murnan's early season form seems behind him, as does Nathan's on the other end of the spectrum, so while the model indicates 80/20, I think in reality it is a bit more favoured towards Aspinall than that, as such I'm going to ignore what seems like a moderately big price on Joe on paper.

van Duijvenbode/Koltsov is going to be a lot of fun, but it's not going to be fun to bet on. The betting model is chucking out Dirk to win this 84% of the time, so you may ask why aren't we piling on Dirk at 1/3, and that's a valid question. The point is that Boris looked very good in the first round and clearly is giving no fucks whatsoever having watches his match against Wattimena. A Boris that doesn't give a fuck is a dangerous Boris. So I can avoid.

Huybrechts/Beaton was clearly scheduled to put Fallon on in primetime but lol, and this is kind of like the previous game where I'm going to talk myself out of betting on the favourite. Kim based on the stats should win this around three times in four and he's 1/2. But there's a couple of things here. First, Kim's preparation has been fucked up on account of him being unable to enter France (lol schengen lol eu), secondly Steve looked much better against Fallon than he has done in a huge amount of time. These things matter. As such, I'll pass.

Finally we've got Whitlock/Kleermaker, and this just seems like a market where the line is correct. Martijn I see as having a 42% shot, and he's 6/4, there just isn't the margins there.

Worlds day 7 tips

Oof that Wilson result, where he's lost in the past he's generally played well. Today was not one of those days. Rusty and Raymond looked fine, Wade and Kuivenhoven was generally a dumpster fire of a match for which the less is said about the better. Onto Tuesday now.

Williams/Shibata is incredibly awkward as I know next to nothing about the qualifier. Odds seem like they should be fine, so let's move on, we don't punt on games with this sort of line with limited or no data.

Lowe/Larsson is one that Jason should really win a lot more than the market suggests. 0.25u Lowe 4/11. The data that we have suggests that Lowe is more like an 85/15 favourite, if not more, I'm just going to take a really small punt given the odds as Jason's not really got the results this year so this one may be a bit of a struggle, but it looks decent enough to me.

King/Joyce I think is kind of close to a punt on Mervyn, heck, it's a punt on Mervyn, 0.25u King 8/13. This one's mostly 4/7 but this line's available in a couple of places. Joyce was a bit lucky to get through and Mervyn is playing at such a higher level that the projections I have rate for him to take it over 70% of the time. So we'll grab that line.

Chisnall/de Decker seems like a perfectly cromulent line. Dave is a bit shorter than 1/3, I see him as around the 2/7 range. It looks spot on. Mike didn't do anything hugely spectacular in the first round to make me think he's one way or another outside of his season long stats.

van der Voort/Hunt is another one where we can look to just quietly accumulate on the favourites, 0.25u van der Voort 2/5, we went against Adam in the first round and it didn't work out, but we're going to go for it again. The model suggests Vincent will take this over 85% of the time. So we fire again.

Smith/Meulenkamp is kind of mundane. Michael is correctly a big favourite. He's a little bit too much of a big favourite, but it's only one or two percentage points. No bet here.

I was thinking that van den Bergh against Hempel would be something where we could go for some sort of hero yolo bet on Florian, but oddly enough it isn't. 3/1 is on the table, so we need 25%, and I only see 29%. That's really not enough for me to recommend a play - if you liked what you saw the other day against Schindler, I won't hate the play, but that game really disappointed in terms of quality, which isn't what you want to see against someone of Dimitri's calibre.

Finally Peterson against Smith. The market has it evens. It's a horrible spot, I was hoping that they would still favour Devon rather than Raymond, then maybe we could make some sort of combination Petersen playing bad, Raymond looking good in the first round shot. But we can't. If anything, I think it may be an overadjustment and we see Raymond regress to the mean, Devon play up as he has done historically all the time on stage and it's a play on Petersen. Fortunately we're not at gunpoint so we can avoid the whole clusterfuck.

Worlds day 6 tips

Christ, Smudger made that hard. Sherrock fucked it up, so we're basically break even on the day. Elsewhere, Ky Smith was kind of what we thought he'd be, Heaver/Mathers was kind of how we thought it'd go, Portela gave Soutar a much better game than anticipated, Michael flashed against Kleermaker but was generally outplayed, Schindler and Hempel looked generally good looking at the game in real time but the statistics weren't great, while Clayton/Barry was probably the best game of the tournament so far. There is actually only an evening session on Monday, so this should be quick.

Woodhouse/Wilson is probably one of the easier games to call, and a much easier one to bet. 0.25u Wilson 7/5 is available on Unibet and slightly shorter prices are easily available elsewhere. James is playing the better darts all season, this is quite a trivial punt. It's that far in favour that the only question is whether I should contemplate half a unit. If there's Wilson injury news I've not seen then ignore, but this looks way off from everyone.

Rodriguez/Robb is a bit trickier given we don't have a great understanding on where Ben's game is at, my gut says that Rusty will likely have been the way to play this one given the market is with Robb as a 2/1 underdog. I'll pass.

Barney/Ilagan is kind of similar except the market is closer to 75/25, again I think I can ignore. The line just feels right enough, in retrospect this may be one where going on Raymond seems obvious, but I'll pass again.

Wade/Kuivenhoven is the last match, Maik basically did nothing other than play competently and get his job done, not entirely sure how he managed to lose a set but it is what it is, as it's round two we have a great deal of data and the line looks close to perfect, I'm seeing Maik has having a touch under a 25% chance, he is 3/1. We can avoid this one.

That's the lot. we should be very close to finishing off round one now so that will give us a lot more data for most future analyses.

Worlds day 5 tips

Matches are coming thick and fast, quick review of yesterday, Hughes I don't think was particularly disappointing, Smith was just a fair bit better than expected, Rydz/Yamada went as we thought, Darius hit the nine then kind of fell apart, White was comfortable enough, Krcmar continues to struggle when it matters, Williams didn't play great but did enough to beat Evetts who didn't play either, Rowby looked nice enough but didn't really need to do much against a struggling Kenny, while van Gerwen will be happy to get that one over the line, it only really being one dodgy leg where he missed seven at double affecting the scoreline.

Kuivenhoven/Smith up first, now if we know KY is able to play anywhere near as well as his dad did yesterday it's a trivial lay of Kuivenhoven, and Maik is not at the level where we can ever think about considering a bet, a sub-90 scoring player shouldn't be 1/4 generally speaking.

Heaver/Mathers is going to be an interesting one, Jason's actually priced just shy of a 60/40 favourite, as they're both tour card holders we have data and it actually favours Gordon ever so slightly. Factor in additionally that Gordon has been here before and Jason hasn't, that should counteract Mathers having slightly more inconsistency in the game that gives Heaver better overall scoring. It's also a bit of a free hit for Mathers, given he is in as the second alternate. There is plenty of vig in the market though, and only one or two places are offering 13/10, most are 5/4 or worse 6/5 which I don't think offers sufficient value. It's one where I should just consider going a tenth of a unit, but I'll pass.

Soutar/Portela looks to be priced alright. We don't have a huge amount of data on Portela, but we know enough about Alan that 1/5 doesn't feel like it would be that much of a misprice either way.

Bunting/Smith is an intriguing one, Ross didn't look amazing in his opening game but did enough to get home which is the important thing, this is a pretty important game and the sort he needs to be winning to start really climbing up the rankings. He actually comes in at odds against, which seems weird as he is scoring more than Bunting this season (albeit with a touch more inconsistency) that projects him to be 60/40. We'll go with this - 0.25u Smith 11/10

Kleermaker/Michael will see Martijn finally make his debut here, and he's priced up as about a 70/30 favourite against Michael who's been here a few times without really making an impact. Kleermaker is scoring significantly higher than John that he should be a favourite, but the model is actually projecting Michael to be a bit closer than the line suggests as a 60/40 dog. I would point to Michael's huge inconsistency rating, but Kleermaker is also inconsistent. I'm going to pass as I just don't believe John has the game to be able to play his best stuff for long enough to claim the three sets required, or that Kleermaker will gift Michael enough legs to get home that way either. Could be proven very wrong.

Hempel/Schindler is the pick of the round and the bookies have it close to even. It actually feels about right, Martin is playing the better stuff but not by that much, Hempel ought to win this closer to 45% of the time than 40%, so Schindler being 8/11 looks extremely reasonable.

Beaton/Sherrock is all going to be about which Fallon turns up. If it's the stage Fallon she wins easily. If it's the floor Fallon, she loses easily. As the game is on stage, 0.25u Sherrock 17/20, we also have the unknown that Steve, while having seen pretty much everything in his career, will rarely if ever have been in the sort of situation where the crowd will be heavily against him (at least I expect that to be the case). Beaton will likely just ignore and play, but you never know.

Clayton/Barry is likely going to be a fairly one sided affair unless Keane can produce his A-game throughout, coupled with Clayton not showing up, which seems unlikely given Jonny rarely if ever these days produces a truly bad performance. I see 84/16, so no value at all.

That's the lot, hopefully we don't end up having missed on Mathers and Michael underdog punts.

Worlds day 4 tips

Borland you fucking beauty!

I was thinking that in situations like I highlighted yesterday where I'm thinking there's a small edge on Lennon, but not enough to recommend a standard play, why don't I just recommend a smaller play? I mean this is standard Kelly criterion stuff, so this'll be something I'll probably look to do more in 2022. Smaller potential winnings, but due to the lower edge, lower risk at the same time. Yesterday, pretty happy with how Ross played, also happy with how Lam played, he got a bit too far behind but completely lost his mind on finishing in the final set. Wattimena was incredibly disappointing but Koltsov looked good, Joyce/Benecky was surprisingly competitive, similarly with Murnan/Lim albeit because both players didn't look great, while Wright looked pretty comfortable.

Another eight games today, first up is Hughes/Smith. We really don't know where Raymond is at, but I think it's fairly reasonable to think he's a few steps behind Hughes despite Jamie's relatively poor couple of years, so to see the market pricing it up at around 70/30 doesn't seem unreasonable.

Rydz/Yamada is the same situation, and if anything the calculation is worse, Callan is stupid to one on, we can safely ignore this one.

Labanauskas/de Decker is one that we've got decent data on, and on a first glance maybe it's a little bit off, de Decker at 2/1 is possibly a touch long as I'm looking at around a 38% chance, but I think I will pass on it given that Darius looked pretty good last time out at Minehead and Mike didn't look overly convincing in the tour card holder qualifier (and flat out bad at the Grand Slam).

White/Landman is one where I think we just need to look at what Chris did in the first round and make a call, and I think this was one where we can avoid taking a punt. Landman only won three legs in fifteen darts and it was more a game that Scott gave away, and against someone of White's quality, assuming Ian doesn't shit the bed, isn't going to cut it, so a line approaching 75/25 looks alright to be honest.

Hunt/Krcmar is close to a flip, I have no idea why unless someone's just looked at Krcmar's relatively pedestrian performances at the Grand Slam and his absence from the PC Finals. Adam's likely regressed since 2020 and Boris is hugely underrated, at least in the market. 0.25u Krcmar 5/6, would quite happily bet in as far as 8/13 or there abouts, that price is only there on Betway but 4/5 is widely available. Even tempted to make this half a unit.

Evetts/Williams is another one that's relatively closely priced with Jim a small favourite, which seems a little bit off again. We don't have a huge amount of data on Jim at around 120 legs of which over half will count towards the projection, but that data does scream out 70/30 in favour of Jim. Ted is just consistently not as good, if he plays as well as he did very sporadically in claiming the world youth then maybe the line is closer to correct, but this looks like another solid play. 0.25u Williams 4/5

Rodriguez/Kenny is incredibly close to a bet on Rowby. The projections I've got say this is bang in the middle of 70/30 and 75/25, and 8/13 is available, again just on Betway with 4/7 widely available. Nick's the little bit more consistent but that doesn't make up for it. You know what, this is worth the shot, 0.25u Rodriguez 8/13, we've got around a 10% difference so let's go with it.

van Gerwen/Barstow looks to be relatively fairly priced despite Chas seeming extremely competent in his opening round game. Maybe it should be 7/1 rather than 9/1, but it's definitely not worth the play on Barstow. Michael should ease through this one.

That's it for today, back later for tomorrow, all the matches are now set so can do this whenever really.