Monday 20 December 2021

Worlds day 7 tips

Oof that Wilson result, where he's lost in the past he's generally played well. Today was not one of those days. Rusty and Raymond looked fine, Wade and Kuivenhoven was generally a dumpster fire of a match for which the less is said about the better. Onto Tuesday now.

Williams/Shibata is incredibly awkward as I know next to nothing about the qualifier. Odds seem like they should be fine, so let's move on, we don't punt on games with this sort of line with limited or no data.

Lowe/Larsson is one that Jason should really win a lot more than the market suggests. 0.25u Lowe 4/11. The data that we have suggests that Lowe is more like an 85/15 favourite, if not more, I'm just going to take a really small punt given the odds as Jason's not really got the results this year so this one may be a bit of a struggle, but it looks decent enough to me.

King/Joyce I think is kind of close to a punt on Mervyn, heck, it's a punt on Mervyn, 0.25u King 8/13. This one's mostly 4/7 but this line's available in a couple of places. Joyce was a bit lucky to get through and Mervyn is playing at such a higher level that the projections I have rate for him to take it over 70% of the time. So we'll grab that line.

Chisnall/de Decker seems like a perfectly cromulent line. Dave is a bit shorter than 1/3, I see him as around the 2/7 range. It looks spot on. Mike didn't do anything hugely spectacular in the first round to make me think he's one way or another outside of his season long stats.

van der Voort/Hunt is another one where we can look to just quietly accumulate on the favourites, 0.25u van der Voort 2/5, we went against Adam in the first round and it didn't work out, but we're going to go for it again. The model suggests Vincent will take this over 85% of the time. So we fire again.

Smith/Meulenkamp is kind of mundane. Michael is correctly a big favourite. He's a little bit too much of a big favourite, but it's only one or two percentage points. No bet here.

I was thinking that van den Bergh against Hempel would be something where we could go for some sort of hero yolo bet on Florian, but oddly enough it isn't. 3/1 is on the table, so we need 25%, and I only see 29%. That's really not enough for me to recommend a play - if you liked what you saw the other day against Schindler, I won't hate the play, but that game really disappointed in terms of quality, which isn't what you want to see against someone of Dimitri's calibre.

Finally Peterson against Smith. The market has it evens. It's a horrible spot, I was hoping that they would still favour Devon rather than Raymond, then maybe we could make some sort of combination Petersen playing bad, Raymond looking good in the first round shot. But we can't. If anything, I think it may be an overadjustment and we see Raymond regress to the mean, Devon play up as he has done historically all the time on stage and it's a play on Petersen. Fortunately we're not at gunpoint so we can avoid the whole clusterfuck.

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