Sunday 26 December 2021

Worlds round 3 überpöst

Figure while I've got a bunch of time I'll just go through the whole of the last 32 in bracket order to get all the tips out to be able to enjoy the games without scrambling around to get tips out throughout the next couple of days. If anyone gets a bit of a cold in the next couple of days and the PDC forces them out, then I'll obv update, but for now let's go.

Price/Huybrechts (Monday evening) - Price averaged pretty well but still lost a set to Edhouse, who was playing decently enough, so think despite the lack of a 3-0 score it's fair to say Gerwyn's on it well enough. Kim looked a bit clunky against Beaton (disrupted travel could well have something to do with that in fairness), but Steve was down a fair bit from the first round level as well, would imagine Kim will up his game in this one. Market has Gerwyn at a couple of ticks over 80%, that's maybe a slight overestimate given I see Kim at around 21-22% to take it, but factor in the relative second round performances and this looks fine to me.

Smith/van Duijvenbode (Monday afternoon) - Ross was forced to five sets against Bunting but really should have wrapped it up much easier, the game just disappeared after around five legs after being in complete control. Dirk was also pushed to five sets by Koltsov, so it's a bit mutual in terms of being perhaps not at their best in round two. Smith in round one wasn't exactly setting the world on fire average-wise, but was getting no help from Jeff averaging below 80. Market can't split them, I give the tiniest of edges to Smith, but it's only like he wins 3% more often than Dirk so not being able to get either of them at evens makes this another easy pass.

Clayton/Clemens (Monday evening) - Jonny got into one of the games of the tournament so far against Keane Barry, but you never really felt he was in trouble of losing it, while Gabriel swept Lewy Williams who didn't show up, Clemens averaging 86 being enough to sweep it in straight sets. Market has this at a similar price to the Price game, that seems fine as I see Gabriel claiming it 18% of the time. So no bets yet.

Smith/O'Connor (Monday afternoon) - Michael had the highest average so far in rolling over Ron Meulenkamp, while Willie got into a real battle with Danny Lauby before doing the expected against Glen Durrant. Market sees this as 75/25, that seems close to spot on once more. Smith's at 77% season long, perhaps that should be a little bit lower given Willie's improved his form over the last two to three months, but Michael's first round performance probably offsets it. May also be hard for Willie to turn it back on to where he was at in round one after not being tested in round two.

Wade/van der Voort (Monday evening) - James took out Maik Kuivenhoven in four sets despite what many would call a BDO level average, while Vincent needed just the three sets to eliminate Adam Hunt, also not needing to average over 90. Wade comes in as a moderate favourite in the 60-65% range (slightly nearer the higher end), and this is the first one where we can think about betting. My projection gives van der Voort about 45%. There's a bit more inconsistency in Vincent's game which will temper that slightly, but James did his best work in early season when he binked the UK Open. This is very close, 6/4 is widely available and one random bookie is doing 8/5, I think 13/8 is worth the shot but not at this stage. I'll add this on if the line moves in our favour in a separate post.

Edit 27/12 15:10 - Vincent's been forced out of the tournament with a bit of a cold. Fuck Boris.

Cullen/Kleermaker (Tuesday afternoon) - Joe was pushed to the limit by Jim Williams but managed to scrape over the line, while Martijn, after a comfortable enough win against John Michael, took down Simon Whitlock in a bit of a scrappy game. Joe is a huge favourite in the market with over a 75% implied chance of winning, I was expecting the model to spit out a bet on Kleermaker here, but the length of the game is such that he's only actually at 26%. If this price was available on the Pro Tour it's a bet, but the game is long enough that Cullen takes it home that much more.

Hempel/Smith (Monday afternoon) - Florian pulled out the biggest shock in terms of seedings by eliminating Dimitri van den Bergh after surprisingly sweeping Martin Schindler (the sweep being the surprise, not necessarily the result) in round one, while Raymond is the last international qualifier left standing following an opportunistic win over Jamie Hughes and a sweep of the out of form Devon Petersen. Market thinks Raymond is at around the 35% marker, and this is a hard one to project given the lack of data - the model says Hempel at 82%, but that's only on 19 won legs. Smith, in the ten he's lost, is actually scoring a point and a half higher, so maybe the projection would be closer if he'd been allowed to convert some of those. It still kind of feels like a Hempel bet though - 0.25u Hempel 4/9, I will just go with the standard sizing given the lack of data on Smith, but I think he gets found out often enough when running into a top 32 calibre player, which is what Florian is statistically.

Lennon/King (Tuesday afternoon) - Steve pulled off possibly the biggest upset in terms of Elo rankings when he eliminated Ratajski, Steve's been playing better than his results suggest all year, but he converted it into a result when it mattered most, following a swingy victory over Madars Razma. King was in a world of trouble against Joyce before running off a billion straight legs to advance. Seems like King has a little bit more than a 60% shot to take this one on my projections, so I think we can bet here - 0.25u Lennon 2/1, this is just about enough value to go for it, there is no inconsistency difference to speak of when compared to the Wade/VVDV game so I think this is fine to go with. There's actually slightly longer available on one fringe bookie if you want to punt on whatever a Spreadex is.

Wright/Heta (Tuesday evening) - Wright was solid enough against Meikle and won in straight sets with Ryan averaging sub-80, Heta was given a decent enough test against Luke Woodhouse but came through in four with the better average than Wright. We know Damon's extremely dangerous and the projections reflect this, coming up at 40% against one of the big three - which the market wildly disagrees with. 0.25u Heta 13/5, 11/4 is available in one place but this price is more widely available, it wouldn't be any shock if Peter is taken out at this stage for the second straight year.

Searle/Noppert (Tuesday afternoon) - Potential match of the round between two players very closely seeded together, both in the top sixteen of year long scoring with Noppert being top ten. Ryan cruised against Borland who fell off a cliff in terms of quality after the nine in round one, Noppert got into a bit of a missed doubles fest against Jason Heaver but got over the line in the end. Ryan's a small favourite in the market which is understandable given how well he played at Minehead and given Danny's been a bit unconvincing in the first game, I see it as more flippy with Noppert taking this 4-5% more often than Searle does. Is 11/8 enough? I think so. 0.25u Noppert 11/8

de Sousa/Soutar (Wednesday afternoon) - Two players that needed deciding sets, de Sousa never really looked in trouble as long as Jason Lowe couldn't keep his red hot start going, while Soutar looked way off early against Suljovic before turning it around thanks to a bunch of missed darts from Mensur. Market has Jose in the low 70's, this is fine, maybe Jose should be a few ticks more of a favourite actually.

Aspinall/Rydz (Wednesday afternoon) - Nathan struggled to get over the line against Joe Murnan and survived a match dart which would have been a big shock, while Rydz has rolled off six straight sets, looking fantastic against Dolan in a match where both averaged over 100. Market still has Nathan as a favourite, but only just, being able to get 8/11. That equates to needing 58% to be break even, and I see the match at 64%, so this is kind of close to a punt on Nathan here, but I'll pass on doing so just given on how off he looked in the first round, and how comfortable Rydz has been looking.

van Gerwen/Dobey (Tuesday evening) - Michael needed four sets to dispose of Chas Barstow after giving one away, didn't look in top gear but he didn't need to be, while Dobey looked a little under par and was given a good test by Rusty Jake Rodriguez before getting over the line in the deciding set. Michael is the better player, but not by much, and this line is hugely under representing Chris' chances in this one. 0.25u Dobey 7/2, that indicates less than a one in four chance to win. I see over 40%, even after taking off a couple of points for added inconsistency.

Edit 28/12 17:55 - Michael's been forced out of the tournament as well. Fuck Boris.

Chisnall/Humphries (Wednesday afternoon) - Dave took down de Decker in straight sets with a solid performance, while Luke also won out 3-0 to dispose of Rowby John Rodriguez. The market has no way to separate them with both being slightly odds on, my model is actually saying Chisnall 60/40, but I think that's a false read based on consistency. Luke's got one of the best consistency scores in the world at under 1.5, while Dave is closer to six than five - I think that's enough to push the projection enough where I don't have confidence in a bet.

Anderson/White (Wednesday evening) - Gary eliminated Adrian Lewis in a forgettable game, White did the same to Chris Landman. Both players season long look extremely close statistically, it's the closest thing to 50/50 I've seen for a long time. So we'll take the dog, 0.25u White 7/4, combination of the market still loving Anderson for seemingly popularity reasons alone and continuing to underrate Ian (although he has at least been lacking results comparable to performances this year) makes this a play.

Cross/Gurney (Tuesday evening) - Rob didn't need to do a great deal after Barney fell apart after one set, Gurney also came through in four sets in a fun tie against Ricky Evans. Market is leaning Cross around 60/40, maybe that's underrating Daryl a bit, Cross has scoring about a point better but the construction of that is Daryl having comparable winning legs but more inconsistency - projection says Gurney up at 48%, so can certainly think about Daryl at 6/4. Will pass just about, given on Rob's upswing in form in the last quarter and given that consistency rating. Wouldn't discourage a bet here, I just don't think there's quite enough confidence to go with it.

So that's the lot, will update if there's anything weird going on and when we get some last 16 lineups and lines confirmed.

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