Friday 31 December 2021

Quarter finals

The betting hits just keep coming, Soutar and Searle really didn't show up, although Rydz was playing well enough that I think he holds off a peak Soutar anyway, while Dobey blew a lead that he shouldn't have done, the upshot being we're down a unit and a half on the tournament which isn't really where we wanted to be, but it is what it is. We're back in action tomorrow, four quarter finals, let's go.

Wade/King - Pity that Raymond couldn't get through, but King fought back well to save Hopp's tour card, while Wade wasn't tested at all against Kleermaker. Wade's one of three players who're at or around 65% in the market, as such I think we've got to be taking the underdog here, 0.25u King 7/4, Mervyn's actually scoring slightly more in winning legs than Wade is, although James scoring more in losing legs gives him the slightly better overall scoring rate. That's not enough to put us off given that Mervyn projects to win slightly more than James does. Even if you factor in recent form, it's still a good bet.

Humphries/Anderson - The closest match at the bookies, Anderson produced his best game of the year to take out Cross while Luke came from behind to eliminate Chris Dobey in a deciding set. If Gary does what he did in the last sixteen, he probably wins, but Luke actually averaged more, and is scoring more in all areas of the game over the season. Luke projects to win 55% of the time, 5/4 is incredibly close to having sufficient value. I should probably take this, but it's kind of a huge step for Luke to take, which is a little bit of a concern.

Wright/Rydz - Both players averaged in the high 90's with 4-1 wins where we'd backed the other guy both times. Peter's actually dropped to fourth in year long scoring now behind Clayton, but is still well ahead of Rydz who's just outside the top twenty. Market has Wright at 1/2, I think that's a little bit on the long side with my projections showing him at around 73%. There's not quite enough there, I'm closer to a punt on Humphries to be honest.

Price/Smith - Think most people were expecting this to be Price/Clayton but Smith came through the probable game of the year, while Gerwyn ran off a lot of straight legs to dispatch DvD. Price is less of a favourite in the market than Wright is, but I only see Gerwyn's projected win chance at one percent lower than Peter's - so with Price being 4/7 rather than 1/2, it's kind of the same equation as the previous game - not quite the odds we want.

That's it, will be back tomorrow evening with semi final picks.

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