Wednesday 15 December 2021

Worlds day 2 tips

Only watched the Edhouse/Hudson game before watching Arsenal, wasn't overly impressed although Pete was doing nicely on the maximums, looks like Ritchie improved a lot in the second game. Adrian was fine and Matt was very competent and maybe a touch unfortunate not to force the game further, meanwhile Ricky Evans looked a lot better than he has done of recent while Kumar appeared to have regressed somewhat. Onto day two and we'll see both of the other two round one winners from today in action, the full preview is still fresh in the memory so won't go into great detail.

But just as a quick diversion, Lakeside postponed. Fuck you Boris you twat.

Lennon/Razma - Not quite sure why this is priced as a flip. Steve is clearly the better player. 0.25u Lennon evs. This doesn't seem anywhere near as close, the model I'm using is thinking this is a two in three game. If Lennon has a random injury I don't know about but the bookies do then I get caught out but I'll take my chances.

Mitchell/Landman - Hard to judge where Landman is precisely at, we at least have Challenge Tour data, and it seems to indicate that Mitchell should be a solid favourite. A bit shorter than 1/2 for Scott feels right, Landman's competent but shouldn't really threaten much more often than that.

Barstow/Norman Jr - Oddschecker's being a bit derpy on this one, the main page is indicating that 8/13 was available on Chas, which I think would be well worth the punt, but click into see where is offering that and it seems like 1/2 with 8/15 in places is the best you can get. That still doesn't seem bad, although I won't be betting it, the question's on how Chas adapts to the huge stage.

Gurney/Evans - Line looks alright. Spot on in fact. We can get Ricky at 9/4, which after tonight's much improved display is something that I was wondering if it was worth contemplating, but he only barely rates to win 30%, so no.

O'Connor/Lauby - If it wasn't for Willie turning the volume up in the last couple of months, I'd likely be looking at Lauby at 2/1, but with him having picked up the form of late I'm not sure I can contemplate the bet, it would be marginal at best.

Meikle/Schmutzler - Another game that's similarly priced with Ryan as the favourite obviously, and I'm kind of half tempted to take a poke at Ryan at the 2/5 you can get on a few bookies. Fabian's really not produced statistically that I think he'll compare with Meikle, but is it that much of a difference that we can say he's winning a lot less than 29% of the time? Urgh, I don't know. Will just pass and enjoy.

Meulenkamp/Ashton - Ah, card holder fight, so we actually have data. I was expecting the data to spit out Meulenkamp as sick value at 2/5, but he's not good enough. In fact, the data is really thinking that Lisa would be the very small value play, but nowhere near any sort of puntable shot, market says she has more than 30%, I don't think she has a one in three shot, but it's more than what the market says. Yep, no value.

Anderson/Lewis - Gary is the favourite. I do not necessarily see why, Adrian actually projects on winning legs to take nearly 60% of the games, which is a lot down to consistency given that Anderson is scoring ever so slightly more than Lewis over the course of the year. Still, can't turn down the price we are offered. 0.25u Lewis 6/4

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