Sunday 19 December 2021

Worlds day 6 tips

Christ, Smudger made that hard. Sherrock fucked it up, so we're basically break even on the day. Elsewhere, Ky Smith was kind of what we thought he'd be, Heaver/Mathers was kind of how we thought it'd go, Portela gave Soutar a much better game than anticipated, Michael flashed against Kleermaker but was generally outplayed, Schindler and Hempel looked generally good looking at the game in real time but the statistics weren't great, while Clayton/Barry was probably the best game of the tournament so far. There is actually only an evening session on Monday, so this should be quick.

Woodhouse/Wilson is probably one of the easier games to call, and a much easier one to bet. 0.25u Wilson 7/5 is available on Unibet and slightly shorter prices are easily available elsewhere. James is playing the better darts all season, this is quite a trivial punt. It's that far in favour that the only question is whether I should contemplate half a unit. If there's Wilson injury news I've not seen then ignore, but this looks way off from everyone.

Rodriguez/Robb is a bit trickier given we don't have a great understanding on where Ben's game is at, my gut says that Rusty will likely have been the way to play this one given the market is with Robb as a 2/1 underdog. I'll pass.

Barney/Ilagan is kind of similar except the market is closer to 75/25, again I think I can ignore. The line just feels right enough, in retrospect this may be one where going on Raymond seems obvious, but I'll pass again.

Wade/Kuivenhoven is the last match, Maik basically did nothing other than play competently and get his job done, not entirely sure how he managed to lose a set but it is what it is, as it's round two we have a great deal of data and the line looks close to perfect, I'm seeing Maik has having a touch under a 25% chance, he is 3/1. We can avoid this one.

That's the lot. we should be very close to finishing off round one now so that will give us a lot more data for most future analyses.

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