Wednesday 22 December 2021

Worlds day 9 tips

May as well get the last of round 2 out of the way while I've got a little bit of time to work with.

Heta/Woodhouse rates to be a moderately easy tie for Damon, Luke's someone who I thought would lose in the first round but a combination of a better than expected display and Wilson underperforming saw him pull through, such is the level of Damon's game that this looks 75/25 - so a little bit more in favour of Heta than the market which places the line at 2/5. It's close to the edge I'd be looking for but isn't quite there.

Dolan/Rydz could be spectacular as two players just outside the top 16 in scoring for the season collide, Dolan slightly higher. Callan came through a trivial matchup against Yamada, didn't really need to get out of first gear to win that one. Market has Dolan shading this in a 55/45 sort of tie, that looks close enough to correct for me, maybe Callan's slightly closer but Dolan is the favourite.

Suljovic/Soutar is the exact same line with Mensur being the favourite, Alan getting in a spot of bother against Diogo Portela who was hitting some real nice legs in that one. Again, the line looks close to spot on, maybe Mensur is ever so slightly overvalued at 4/5 but he is the favourite - just.

de Sousa/Lowe closes the afternoon, Jose could probably wrap up a Premier League place with a couple of wins given Dimitri might have just played himself out of it, Lowe was an easy victor over a fairly poor Larsson, this is a huge step up in class and the market gives him no more than a 30% shot at this one. This feels like the first game where it's maybe not quite shaded enough in the favour of Jose, you can get 1/3 in a couple of places but he's nearer 1/4 for me. Again like the first one the edge isn't quite there, if you're an addict who must have a bet on every session then a Heta/de Sousa double won't exactly cost you.

Noppert/Heaver opens the evening session, Danny having lost most of his value over the last six months and comes in as more of an odds on favourite than either of Damon or Jose at 2/7. Jason took care of Mathers over the weekend in a bit of a grindy match and only took three legs in fifteen darts, that's not going to cut it against Noppert. I'll go with the bet given the odds on this one, 0.5u Noppert 2/7, we have a little bit more of a percentage edge than the other two, we've got 85% when we need 78% which given it's that short a price looks to be more than enough edge. Danny should really be 2/11 or 1/6.

Clemens/Williams sees Lewy return after dispatching another of the Japanese qualifiers relatively easily yesterday with a deceptively high average given just two of his nine won legs were in fifteen or fewer darts. Getting one in four visits and averaging 103 in the two legs he lost helps. Gabriel will be wanting to get this one done to give himself a good test against Clayton which might even be more formidable a task than he had last year despite him being seeded higher now, the market thinks he gets home just under 65% of the time, and that might be a little bit harsh on Williams. I see him as having slap bang in the middle of 40% and 45% to win it, which is close to making the 8/5 that Hills are offering worth it. Certainly wouldn't say Gabriel is acca safe in this one.

Cross/Barney is the clear tie of the round, Raymond looked very good in round one against Ilagan, and more importantly sounded happy and confident. Cross has hit form in the last few months, but looking at season long form, I can't separate the two players, it's a pure coin flip. The market doesn't agree, so I think this is a pretty easy play - 0.25u van Barneveld 6/4 is widely available and reflects a good 9% edge on projections.

Final round two game is Dobey and Rusty, Chris one of the best players this season in Pro Tour averages, Rusty also making a name for himself on both the Development Tour and the senior circuit, getting a surprisingly decent test from Ben Robb before advancing in three sets. Now the line is 75/25 Dobey, I don't know how much of that is the market catching up to quite how good Chris is playing, the market sleeping on Rusty, or both, I'd have expected it to be closer then we could play Dobey given I'm seeing 80/20. Wouldn't hate a Chris bet, I'm just a touch concerned about his TV performances this year where he managed to lose a game to O'Connor that he shouldn't have done, lose to Rusty's older brother in the Slam that cost him getting out of a group he really should have won with ease, and also exiting the Matchplay in round one. Probably one I look back and call myself stupid when Chris wins in straight sets.

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