Tuesday 21 December 2021

Worlds day 8 tips

Nice to pin three bets, while all were odds on which will naturally favour hitting, it's always nice to steadily accumulate on favourites who are bigger favourites than what the market suggests. Couple of 3-0 results is fine, King nearly completely shat the bed, but god knows what happened to Joyce after he was up 2-0. I could have watched, I'm working from home so could easily have put the game on a different screen, but may be worth the rewatch. Let's go on to the penultimate day before Christmas.

Searle/Borland sees the nine dart hero come in as a significant underdog against the newest major finalist. While I loved what Willie did (we did back him after all), if anything he's actually overvalued in the market. It's not huge, Ryan should be 1/4 rather than 1/3, I see it as bang on 80/20. Not quite the edge to recommend a play given the marginal gains, but it appears acca safe.

Durrant/O'Connor has a pretty disturbing line of Glen being available at 5/1. I'm actually kind of tempted to suggest a micro play at that price, I'm chucking the projection out of the window given a combination of Durrant having an enormous inconsistency score combined with Willie coming into form at the back end of the year. I'm going to personally have a small punt for funking power, I honestly just hope this doesn't become an embarrassment, because Glen is better than that.

Humphries/Rowby should be fun. I'm fairly surprised by what the projection says - only 55/45 in Luke's favour. There is a fucking huge consistency issue here, Luke's score is down below one and a half (for newer readers, I take the losing average per turn away from the winning average per turn to try to get a read on consistency and/or players getting fucked over by running into good players) while Rowby's is up at over five and a half. 2/1 is a real tempter. But I won't be tempted.

Cullen/Williams closes the afternoon session. Line looks fine to me, would imagine that Jim is slightly more of a live dog than the line suggests, 9/4 or 5/2 might be closer to accurate than the 3/1 that's there, but it's not enough of an edge to really punt.

Aspinall/Murnan opens the evening session, and the one sided line looks OK. Murnan's early season form seems behind him, as does Nathan's on the other end of the spectrum, so while the model indicates 80/20, I think in reality it is a bit more favoured towards Aspinall than that, as such I'm going to ignore what seems like a moderately big price on Joe on paper.

van Duijvenbode/Koltsov is going to be a lot of fun, but it's not going to be fun to bet on. The betting model is chucking out Dirk to win this 84% of the time, so you may ask why aren't we piling on Dirk at 1/3, and that's a valid question. The point is that Boris looked very good in the first round and clearly is giving no fucks whatsoever having watches his match against Wattimena. A Boris that doesn't give a fuck is a dangerous Boris. So I can avoid.

Huybrechts/Beaton was clearly scheduled to put Fallon on in primetime but lol, and this is kind of like the previous game where I'm going to talk myself out of betting on the favourite. Kim based on the stats should win this around three times in four and he's 1/2. But there's a couple of things here. First, Kim's preparation has been fucked up on account of him being unable to enter France (lol schengen lol eu), secondly Steve looked much better against Fallon than he has done in a huge amount of time. These things matter. As such, I'll pass.

Finally we've got Whitlock/Kleermaker, and this just seems like a market where the line is correct. Martijn I see as having a 42% shot, and he's 6/4, there just isn't the margins there.

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