Sunday 19 December 2021

Worlds day 5 tips

Matches are coming thick and fast, quick review of yesterday, Hughes I don't think was particularly disappointing, Smith was just a fair bit better than expected, Rydz/Yamada went as we thought, Darius hit the nine then kind of fell apart, White was comfortable enough, Krcmar continues to struggle when it matters, Williams didn't play great but did enough to beat Evetts who didn't play either, Rowby looked nice enough but didn't really need to do much against a struggling Kenny, while van Gerwen will be happy to get that one over the line, it only really being one dodgy leg where he missed seven at double affecting the scoreline.

Kuivenhoven/Smith up first, now if we know KY is able to play anywhere near as well as his dad did yesterday it's a trivial lay of Kuivenhoven, and Maik is not at the level where we can ever think about considering a bet, a sub-90 scoring player shouldn't be 1/4 generally speaking.

Heaver/Mathers is going to be an interesting one, Jason's actually priced just shy of a 60/40 favourite, as they're both tour card holders we have data and it actually favours Gordon ever so slightly. Factor in additionally that Gordon has been here before and Jason hasn't, that should counteract Mathers having slightly more inconsistency in the game that gives Heaver better overall scoring. It's also a bit of a free hit for Mathers, given he is in as the second alternate. There is plenty of vig in the market though, and only one or two places are offering 13/10, most are 5/4 or worse 6/5 which I don't think offers sufficient value. It's one where I should just consider going a tenth of a unit, but I'll pass.

Soutar/Portela looks to be priced alright. We don't have a huge amount of data on Portela, but we know enough about Alan that 1/5 doesn't feel like it would be that much of a misprice either way.

Bunting/Smith is an intriguing one, Ross didn't look amazing in his opening game but did enough to get home which is the important thing, this is a pretty important game and the sort he needs to be winning to start really climbing up the rankings. He actually comes in at odds against, which seems weird as he is scoring more than Bunting this season (albeit with a touch more inconsistency) that projects him to be 60/40. We'll go with this - 0.25u Smith 11/10

Kleermaker/Michael will see Martijn finally make his debut here, and he's priced up as about a 70/30 favourite against Michael who's been here a few times without really making an impact. Kleermaker is scoring significantly higher than John that he should be a favourite, but the model is actually projecting Michael to be a bit closer than the line suggests as a 60/40 dog. I would point to Michael's huge inconsistency rating, but Kleermaker is also inconsistent. I'm going to pass as I just don't believe John has the game to be able to play his best stuff for long enough to claim the three sets required, or that Kleermaker will gift Michael enough legs to get home that way either. Could be proven very wrong.

Hempel/Schindler is the pick of the round and the bookies have it close to even. It actually feels about right, Martin is playing the better stuff but not by that much, Hempel ought to win this closer to 45% of the time than 40%, so Schindler being 8/11 looks extremely reasonable.

Beaton/Sherrock is all going to be about which Fallon turns up. If it's the stage Fallon she wins easily. If it's the floor Fallon, she loses easily. As the game is on stage, 0.25u Sherrock 17/20, we also have the unknown that Steve, while having seen pretty much everything in his career, will rarely if ever have been in the sort of situation where the crowd will be heavily against him (at least I expect that to be the case). Beaton will likely just ignore and play, but you never know.

Clayton/Barry is likely going to be a fairly one sided affair unless Keane can produce his A-game throughout, coupled with Clayton not showing up, which seems unlikely given Jonny rarely if ever these days produces a truly bad performance. I see 84/16, so no value at all.

That's the lot, hopefully we don't end up having missed on Mathers and Michael underdog punts.

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