Thursday 16 December 2021

Worlds day 3 tips

1-1 for level pegging, boy was Lewis disappointing tonight. Think Gary played a bit better than expected, but he was able to get three separate seven visit holds of throw, which is less than ideal. Elsewhere, Lennon's game was a bit up and down but he got home, Mitchell was really disappointing, Barstow looked extremely competent, Gurney also looked solid (as did Evans, not a bad game that one), O'Connor/Lauby was a nailbiter, Schmutzler didn't really show up, and Lisa Ashton was extremely below par giving Meulenkamp what Mardle would call a breeze in the park.

Let's go to eight games for tomorrow. Benecky is an enormous dog against Joyce in the market, I think giving everything that we know about both players it's kind of warranted, he's under 80 on the Development Tour, while that's naturally going to be deflated somewhat on account of the standard, I can't look at that price and think it's in any way worth the punt, I'd have been more interested in Kumar on the opening night.

Barry/Lam is next up and Keane is quite a big favourite, somewhat more than what I expected given Keane's level of play. While this could very easily go wrong on account of us not having a brilliant idea on where Royden's game is at, I think it is worth a tiny punt, 0.1u Lam 3/1, there's a little bit longer available on some obscure bookie but I'll just stick with the orthodox markets. Keane's going to be a fantastic player but I'm not sure he's quite at the level yet where we can just put him at this price and say it's fine.

Wattimena/Koltsov I think is actually fairly close to a play on Jermaine - we're getting 4/9, and the model says this is 75/25. With Boris having a really quite poor Pro Tour season (Jermaine's wasn't much better to be fair), and having previous course and distance for both not showing up in games and for blowing completely won positions, I am extremely tempted. I might wait and see if there is any line movement. If it moves to 1/2 or 8/15, I'll likely jump on it, but I will not recommend a play at this stage.

Ratajski/Lennon will be an interesting one given Steve looked maybe a bit worse than his season long performance today, he had a couple of good legs but brought too many home in six or more visits, often as a result of Madars missing chances. I do think the market is sleeping on Steve a touch and 13/5 is a little unfair on season long stats, which would make this a pure one in three situation, but it's fairly easy to watch today's game and not be inspired, so it's fine. That isn't a price with big edge.

Murnan/Lim is a tough one to read. We really don't know how well Paul is playing. We can get 1/2 on Murnan - if we know Paul is going to play as well as he has done in his best games over the last few years, we can certainly rule out betting on Joe, but we don't know that. It really does not help that Joe's best performances of the year were frontloaded into the first few months. I really want to shoot on Murnan but I think there is enough uncertainty that I can pass on it.

Borland/Brooks is a fascinating one, we've got two tour card holders fighting it out and there is not a huge deal between them in the rankings, but there is a bit of a difference in where I see the projections, which gives William a big two in three chance of taking it. Now we've got to appreciate Bradley's playing a bit better than he has done over the last few months, but this is a big edge and we need to play it, 0.25u Borland 21/20

Smith/Smith has a lot of Smiths, Ross coming in at just shorter than 1/2 against Jeff. I don't have too much of a problem with that, and the big question is whether we should pile in on Ross, given that the projections have him as a much bigger favourite than that. He's had a great season and I'm seeing him close to 85% compared to the market being at around 70%. Respect Jeff's game a ton, but this line doesn't look right to me, so let's exploit. 0.5u R Smith 4/9

Wright/Meikle is the final game of the evening, and I was kind of wishing that Ryan hadn't done quite so much on TV that was impressive to stick him at only 6/1. Not so much tonight, more at Minehead, as otherwise he'd be a touch longer and I'd probably recommend a shot, the kid can play. It looks one in four, if you look back at how he played against van Duijvenbode you'll think that's not an entirely unreasonable assessment. Certainly don't take the 1/8 on Wright and assume it's a banker because this certainly is not that.

So three plays tomorrow. First time I've gone with a larger unit play for some time but my belief in Smudger is pure, so let's hope he comes home for us.

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