Saturday 18 December 2021

Worlds day 4 tips

Borland you fucking beauty!

I was thinking that in situations like I highlighted yesterday where I'm thinking there's a small edge on Lennon, but not enough to recommend a standard play, why don't I just recommend a smaller play? I mean this is standard Kelly criterion stuff, so this'll be something I'll probably look to do more in 2022. Smaller potential winnings, but due to the lower edge, lower risk at the same time. Yesterday, pretty happy with how Ross played, also happy with how Lam played, he got a bit too far behind but completely lost his mind on finishing in the final set. Wattimena was incredibly disappointing but Koltsov looked good, Joyce/Benecky was surprisingly competitive, similarly with Murnan/Lim albeit because both players didn't look great, while Wright looked pretty comfortable.

Another eight games today, first up is Hughes/Smith. We really don't know where Raymond is at, but I think it's fairly reasonable to think he's a few steps behind Hughes despite Jamie's relatively poor couple of years, so to see the market pricing it up at around 70/30 doesn't seem unreasonable.

Rydz/Yamada is the same situation, and if anything the calculation is worse, Callan is stupid to one on, we can safely ignore this one.

Labanauskas/de Decker is one that we've got decent data on, and on a first glance maybe it's a little bit off, de Decker at 2/1 is possibly a touch long as I'm looking at around a 38% chance, but I think I will pass on it given that Darius looked pretty good last time out at Minehead and Mike didn't look overly convincing in the tour card holder qualifier (and flat out bad at the Grand Slam).

White/Landman is one where I think we just need to look at what Chris did in the first round and make a call, and I think this was one where we can avoid taking a punt. Landman only won three legs in fifteen darts and it was more a game that Scott gave away, and against someone of White's quality, assuming Ian doesn't shit the bed, isn't going to cut it, so a line approaching 75/25 looks alright to be honest.

Hunt/Krcmar is close to a flip, I have no idea why unless someone's just looked at Krcmar's relatively pedestrian performances at the Grand Slam and his absence from the PC Finals. Adam's likely regressed since 2020 and Boris is hugely underrated, at least in the market. 0.25u Krcmar 5/6, would quite happily bet in as far as 8/13 or there abouts, that price is only there on Betway but 4/5 is widely available. Even tempted to make this half a unit.

Evetts/Williams is another one that's relatively closely priced with Jim a small favourite, which seems a little bit off again. We don't have a huge amount of data on Jim at around 120 legs of which over half will count towards the projection, but that data does scream out 70/30 in favour of Jim. Ted is just consistently not as good, if he plays as well as he did very sporadically in claiming the world youth then maybe the line is closer to correct, but this looks like another solid play. 0.25u Williams 4/5

Rodriguez/Kenny is incredibly close to a bet on Rowby. The projections I've got say this is bang in the middle of 70/30 and 75/25, and 8/13 is available, again just on Betway with 4/7 widely available. Nick's the little bit more consistent but that doesn't make up for it. You know what, this is worth the shot, 0.25u Rodriguez 8/13, we've got around a 10% difference so let's go with it.

van Gerwen/Barstow looks to be relatively fairly priced despite Chas seeming extremely competent in his opening round game. Maybe it should be 7/1 rather than 9/1, but it's definitely not worth the play on Barstow. Michael should ease through this one.

That's it for today, back later for tomorrow, all the matches are now set so can do this whenever really.

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