Friday, 26 October 2018

European Championship Day 3 - now featuring an enormous mess

So I was hoping today would be a bit better on the betting front, then I have Anderson do not a lot wrong, Gerwyn slams in a four visit kill to break and lead 5-4 and that's that, O'Connor loses his mind, Schindler forgets to score, and we're then reliant on Chisnall to take out 157 with Lewis waiting on double 18 for the match to salvage something from round one. A bit more was clawed back in the evening session, with Whitlock running up a lead against Wright and holding off a comeback attempt to offset Cullen blowing Smith away after Michael missed far, far too many chances, and the net result is we're down three quarters of a unit so far. It could be worse, we could be that guy on Reddit who posted a "betting analysis", was called out by myself for not actually offering any analysis and generally not understanding how betting works, and then the post oddly disappears before we can work out how much he lost bridgejumping on a Suljovic/Gurney/Hopp treble. Oh well, you'll be alright.

Elsewhere, Michael van Gerwen is out of the event after Steve West took what van Gerwen offered him, which was really quite a lot, and with Suljovic and Wright gone, that's three of the top four seeds out before the quarters, and Price has no gimmie against Chisnall. It's really completely wide open - Burton's worked out that unless it's a Cross/Price final, the last guy in the Slam is getting dropped (I think it's King as of right now but I could be mistaken), if neither of them make it then Ratajski goes as well. Clearly Cross is now a huge favourite to reach the final and win the event with all of the biggest threats in his half of the draw falling - the outright projecton I posted the other day I've updated with the results and, while I have nowhere near the time to make small alterations to everyone's chances per match, on the season long numbers before Dortmund that drove these figures, Cross is now odds on to reach the final and 35% to bink overall. Looks like Hills are the only ones with an outright line up and it's 2/1, so that seems about right. Chizzy's now the favourite to make it out of the bottom half, but it's barely one in four - Webster, Wilson, Price and Wade are all above 13% to do the same.

So, tomorrow evening's matches, and we've got the bottom half's second round. Price/Chisnall is first up and the market's 60/40 in favour of Dave despite what the seedings say. That looks to be pretty close. Season long I've got Price between 41% and 42%, he's probably actually playing a little bit better of recent but I can't justify a bet.

Reyes/Webster is next, with Darren being a bit more of a favourite in the market up at 65% or so with a best price just better than 1/2. If this was Reyes playing peak Reyes quality to beat Suljovic, I might be concerned, but it really wasn't, there was only one fifteen dart kill - Mensur just couldn't score. Webster played a very good match to edge Bunting, and he's a prohibitive favourite on the shorter sample after the summer break at better than 80%, although season long it's just 63%, which isn't enough to bet. I'll pass this one as well, while Reyes hasn't been involved in a long leg play match since seemingly forever and Webster's been good at the format, there's always the nagging doubt that the result, if not the performance, could spark peak Reyes, and if so, watch out.

Third is Wade/Evans, with comparable odds to the previous two, Wade being the favoured party. Wade was just professional against a misfiring Schindler, while Evans really did nothing special against Gurney, just taking advantage of two poor legs to get the break back and then winning break he needed. Season long I think this is 60/40 Wade, since the summer where Ricky's had the run that got him here I think it's a flip. 0.25u Evans 2/1, looks like we have a solid enough edge but we're definitely reliant on Ricky picking his game up a touch.

Last is Hopp/Wilson in a match that the bookies can't really split, Wilson being on the right side of a weighted coinflip. Wilson's been playing far too well all season and is far too experienced to get into any shenanigans with the crowd or let it affect him in the slightest, so with me seeing him having better than a two in three shot season long and still over 60% since the break, 0.5u Wilson 10/11 looks a plum spot, Hopp's at home but this will be a longer game than he's used to - Wilson did take five from six legs against Clayton in under fifteen and averaged 107 in the two legs he lost, so it's not like he crept home. Hopp had two good legs to start and it was a bit of a mutual trainwreck from there.

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