Tuesday 2 October 2018

Quickfire round 2 bets

Numbers indicate the chances the master computer thinks the player will have to win 3-1 or better. That should give you an idea of overall win chances and potential volatility based on who wins the bull.

Chisnall (47%) v van Barneveld (18%) - Barney was really close to being out already, Chisnall had no trouble beating Hopp and was one dart away from 50% on doubles, which is a good sign. That's good enough for me, even if Barney wins every deciding set our bet is profitable if we've handicapped it right - 0.25u Chisnall 6/5

Anderson (41%) v de Zwaan (22%) - Should be an exciting rematch, de Zwaan's an underdog and possible a bit too big of an underdog, but I'm not feeling the concept of betting against Anderson at this moment in time only getting a fairly small edge, de Zwaan is 5/2, i.e. he needs to win over 30% of the time to profitably back him. With the model thinking that he's getting more than 20% before a decider and over 35% of trials are going to a decider, it's tempting. Especially given that de Zwaan outplayed Anderson in round one. What the hell, let's go small for some funking power, 0.1u de Zwaan 5/2.

Gurney (52%) v Meulenkamp (15%) - Gurney was pretty damned solid on doubling both in and out, and we know he can score well, Ron was a surprise package in round one, taking out Cullen in a game where he was getting away well but not hitting doubles too well - Cullen was just worse. Gurney could be the play here, 5/11 would only need him to win half the deciding sets if it goes that far (again, if we've capped it right), that doesn't seem that unreasonable - 0.5u Gurney 5/11.

van Gerwen (69%) v Webster (7%) - We've seen this one a few times over recent years and it's usually a good one, it's interesting to note that Webster's the same price as Lennon - that seems almost entirely down to the length of the match, best of five sets gives you a hell of a lot more breathing room than best of three. 1/6 doesn't seem too appealing, what about 6/1? There's about one in four games projected to go to a decider, Webster would need to win a third of those for it to be break even, and he only rates to win a third of sets on his own throw. He's not going to have the throw every time. No thanks.

Suljovic (25%) v White (38%) - For me this is the most interesting match of the round, the bookies have Mensur as a real big favourite at 1/2, the only real concern is that White was really bad at getting off, at least early in the game, and 35% finishing isn't that great either. Still, I can't see any realistic model that gives White less than a one in three shot, Ian as I keep banging on about is really, really good so 0.25u White 15/8 and move on.

Beaton (23%) v Price (40%) - Steve did it again, what the heck? Cross just missed a bunch of doubles, both to start and finish. Price saw off Noppert in a game that the numbers say was one to forget, Gerwyn's 4/7 which seems to be in the right neighbourhood.

Wright (57%) v Wattimena (12%) - Wright just blitzed Steve West who didn't even get a dart at double in the match, which seems remarkable given that, apart from in a couple of legs, West was always getting away first visit. Jermaine was also getting away well, but Mervyn missed nine out of ten darts to finish legs and had a spectacular nine missed darts to start the last leg of the first set. The line's looking like 80-20, there may even be tiny Wright value at 1/4. I'd say it's safe to put him in an acca, but it doesn't need too much weird stuff to happen so I'm not going to recommend a single bet.

Wilson (29%) v Lewis (33%) - The last game is the one that projects to be the closest, which isn't reflected in the market, which is thinking Adie's a 2-1 favourite. You can see that I'd have him as a favourite, and I'm mindful of the previous round giving Wilson to win and Adie to lose, something that I've seen in quite a few games throughout many tournaments over the past couple of months. It's a big price though, 0.25u Wilson 15/8, Wilson's doubling apart from the last leg of the first two sets was outstanding both in and out, and his scoring looks on point. He also came from behind against Whitlock that has to help psychologically.

That's your lot, three underdogs at around 2/1 or better, so we only really need one of those to get home (ideally White or Wilson given bet sizing), then it's just lay Barney and back the champ. Let us gogogo.

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