Thursday, 4 October 2018

Really quick quarter final bets

Damn traffic...

Suljovic/Price - Probably an easier opponent this round for Suljovic than in the previous, this is another one where the model's thinking that Suljovic has less chance than the market suggests, but I'm going to pass on it. If Mensur's handled White as easily as he did, then there's probably not as much value on Gerwyn as I'd think.

Wright/Wilson - Another step up in opponent for Wilson, while Wright gets a third straight player ranked in the twenties in the FRH rankings. Market has Wright as almost a prohibitive favourite, there could be a bit of underdog value but, like Suljovic, Peter's been playing great stuff and I'm doubting he realises the equity he has.

Gurney/Anderson - Joint closest line on the market at 2/5 Anderson, which shows how one sided this evening could be, I think for this one the line looks good based on the raw data, Gurney's not going to give the title up without a fight, but it's likely going to need Gary to struggle on doubles for anything to open up for Superchin here.

van Gerwen/Chisnall - Around 6/1 Chisnall here, similar line to Webster over the same distance - what does that say more about, Dave or Darren? There might be tiny value in Chisnall, but he's not really been tested to date which may stop him coming flying out of the blocks as he'd need to do.

So, no bets, what a misleading post title.

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