Tuesday, 23 October 2018

European Championship round one bets

Projections are done and the lines have been up for a while now, so let's have a look at the Thursday evening and Friday afternoon sessions to see what we like, I'll also have a bit of a play with reducing the sample to look at form a bit more, generally after the summer break:

West/King - I'm seeing this one as the closest game of the round, with West not even having a cigarette paper's advantage, that's how marginal it is. The bookies also have it close but are leaving King 6/5 out there on offer, which season long is just about tempting, but when I close it down to a more recent sample, the model loves West, and by loves, I mean it's infatuated with West and has made a marriage proposal, it's almost that one sided that I want to bet West at 8/11... smaller samples are more prone to variance though, so I'll just pass the opener.

White/North - Line looks good on first inspection, 4/9 White when I'm pegging him at 70% is round about where I'd expect it to be. Ian is a little bit better than that on the more recent sample at around a three in four shot, not quite enough to punt though.

Whitlock/Beaton - 4/6 Whitlock with Simon being around 53% season long isn't of interest, there's a fair bit of vig so I'm not inclined to bet Beaton either, although he did have a good weekend... the model barely moved however when I shortened the sample, not even 1%, it'd be in our favour but this looks tight enough to go down to who wins the bull - and Whitlock likes a bull.

Smith/Lennon - Michael's rightly well favoured, but Lennon's no mug over this distance, and the numbers seem to back this up. If anything, Steve's playing better now than he has been all year despite his big breakthrough coming in May - over 40% to win this on the recent sample, coupled with one in three season long, points to 0.25u Lennon 13/5.

Cullen/Klaasen - Jelle's been putting up god awful numbers all year, but Cullen's been pretty average on the Pro Tour so the year long figures settle at round about what the odds suggest. Cullen's numbers since the break though are a bit better, but a 68% win chance on that sample at 4/7 isn't really tasty.

van Gerwen/Nicholson - Can we bet Paul? We can't bet Michael at 1/14. I don't think we can - 16% season long might be worth it at 10/1, but more recently van Gerwen's been on fire, giving Nicholson less than a 7% chance.

Cross/Noppert - Cross is close to value here, better than 1/3 with a 75% shot indicates you should at least consider him for an accumulator/banker, but does Noppert's recent win and general play warrant any bet recommendations? Not really, it just brings Cross's chances in to more or less where the line is, Danny having 27% at 5/2 is close enough for me to ignore it.

Wright/Wattimena - Jermaine's been playing a lot of darts, but has he been playing at a good enough level to upset Snakebite? 30% year long at 10/3 would normally be tempting in itself, but from September onwards? Where Wright has won a Pro Tour event, made the Champions League final (although that doesn't count in the stats) and finalled the Grand Prix (which also doesn't)? Jermaine actually projects to win the game. Weird, I know. 0.25u Wattimena 10/3.

Clayton/Wilson - Another really, really tight game on the projections to kick off the second session, this time it's Clayton they're offering 6/5 on. It's a similar story however to the West/King game, in that the more recent stats favour Wilson enough that the line looks right. It's not the stupid swing in the West game, but it's just enough that it corrects from very tiny marginal value to nothing whatsoever.

Webster/Bunting - These guys met at the Grand Prix, and Webster won comfortably, the bookies however can barely separate them, and neither can I, giving Darren the slightest edge which with him being 5/6 looks like another no bet. It's another weird one like the West game whereby if we severely reduce the sample, one guy springs out to be a huge favourite - and that's Stephen Bunting. I'll generally only go for using the smaller sample if the larger sample was already hinting at a bet, and it wasn't.

Price/Anderson - Gerwyn has the 60/40 line edge in a game I'm projecting Anderson to win. Price has been playing better of late, getting that Euro Tour title hints at that, but the more recent games favour Kyle even more. You wouldn't have thought it, but as I said in the last write up, if it was hinting towards a bet and it swings even more in our favour, we'll go with it - 0.25u Anderson 29/20.

Suljovic/Reyes - Hard to work out how Cristo's got here, it's a name that's dropped from the radar a little bit, just steady qualifying getting him there. Mensur we know more about and he's nearly as short at 1/4, which on the season long stats looks too short, but we can't consider it - Reyes, based on games in the last two months, has less than a 10% chance at pulling the upset.

Gurney/Evans - Market has this at 2-1 in Daryl's favour, roughly where I thought it would be but Evans might be small value. It would only be small value however, and the form guide makes it even smaller - 37% season long, 35% from the September/October games... at 2/1 there's really not enough there.

Hopp/O'Connor - Max is the favourite in the books, O'Connor is the favourite in the projections. 55% offered 13/10 looks nice unless the form guide gives us any reason not to do it... form guide likes Hopp a bit more, but only so much that it becomes almost an exact coin flip. 0.25u O'Connor 13/10 to take out the home nation player.

Wade/Schindler - German number two coming in now against the Machine, if you read the previous post you'll know that Martin's figures in the Players Championship have been great, and in everything all year they're good enough to make this close, over the last couple of months however he's really rocking into form, enough that it's making him around a 55/45 favourite. Odds against and with homefield advantage? Yes please, 0.25u Schindler 7/4.

Lewis/Chisnall - Oddschecker's somehow throwing up a line involving Jamie Lewis on Sportingbet, lol, the market says this is a flip, I'm favouring Dave over the course of the season, and the form guide tends to think the same thing - upping his chances by a couple of points or there abouts to make it exactly 60/40. That's good enough for a bet, 0.25u Chisnall 20/21.

Six bets, only one of them odds against, let's see what happens.

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