Friday, 12 October 2018

Göttingen round two - we continue

Solid day today on the betting front, can never complain about 4/6 when everything you're betting on is odds against, although honestly Gilding, that might be the most important game you've had since the UK Open semi final and you produce that? Oh well, let's carry on, quick projections and bet suggestions and that's it, as mentioned previously this weekend will be limited, anything you see after this before Monday afternoon you can consider a bonus:

Cullen/Edgar - Edgar played decent yesterday against de Graaf, and has been playing a bit better than his result suggests all year. It's Cullen in Europe, but on the numbers throughout Edgar's better than a one in three shot so 0.25u Edgar 13/5

Smith/Kantele - Nothing here. The numbers suggest it's a Smith bet, even at 1/7, then again these are season long and Marko's already made one projection look a bit silly and one match isn't going to suddenly make the sample not limited, so next...

Chisnall/Joyce - This line actually looks alright - I'm getting Joyce in the low 30's to win this and he's just the right side of 2/1 if you want to bet on him. Close enough to not bet, he didn't rip up any trees when beating Wattimena.

Bunting/Mansell - Think this is another underdog punt, 0.25u Mansell 2/1, when was the last time Bunting was able to put more than one really good game together? Anyone? Mickey didn't do anything spectacular, but he's been doing his usual give nothing away game for quite a while now, and that game rates to win four out of ten against Bunting, which is good enough for me.

Gurney/Humphries - Odd one in that I'm currently playing Lose Yourself on the randomiser, and this may be the only opportunity Luke's got. Do I want to bet it? Yeah, sure, 0.25u Humphries 12/5, I'm seeing this at about 36%, he'd better capture it, not let it slip.

Whitlock/North - Richard was not impressive in getting through Bunse, not at all, which is an irritant given the model's getting him up near 40% against Whitlock and the odds look nice. The model's never really liked Whitlock, so I'm wondering what the deal is here. It just doesn't seem like one to trust the model on.

White/Henderson - Wow, didn't Hendo make that first round game look difficult. Line looks close to good, projecting at around 2-1 in favour of White, so while it looks like there's potential value on John, given today's performance I'm going to pass the spot.

Clayton/Clemens - Big shot for Gabriel to push through to a Sunday here with Jonny being all over the place since winning one of these, Clayton is probably overall the better player but he's not shown it for a while, and I've just got a sense that now's the time that Clemens, who the model projects as the right weighted side of a flip, does something on a stage - 0.25u Clemens 11/8.

King/Schindler - This is really tight in both my projections and in the market. Nothing to see here, but should be a fun one to kick off the evening session.

Price/Beaton - Steve nearly fucked it up but got over the line against Huybrechts, Price will likely not allow himself to get into such a huge hole in this one. Line looks good in this one again - I'm seeing Price as not quite 60%, so if there was no vig you might have the tiniest of Beaton value. Next.

Webster/Evans - Now that the Gilding hype train has crashed and burned, we can now remount the Baby Shark hype train, 0.25u Evans 11/8, model has him up at 46%, it's not a huge edge, but in the context of Ricky slamming down a 104 average with absolutely no assistance whatsoever, I'm running with it.

van Gerwen/van der Voort - Yawn.

Wright/Klaasen - Jelle's the sort of player at this stage where he needs to show something decent in two or three games in a row to even think about betting on him, he was alright today, but as the model thinks the line is spot on I don't even need to ask that question right now.

Wade/Alcinas - Alcinas seems like one of those players that the model likes that we'll keep on betting until the end of time. There's a bit of inconsistency in his game, whereby when he hits he's good, and when he's not he'll lose the leg and hence the model, working on legs won, will like him more, but it's seeing north of 40% and we're getting better than 2-1, so 0.25u Alcinas 9/4, with the consistency comment it seems hugely dangerous against Wade of all players, but I'm taking that chance.

Hopp/Ratajski - 0.5u Ratajski 11/10, lol at this being a flip, the numbers give this a 2-1 edge to Ratajski. Punt of the week.

Cross/de Zwaan - Intriguing set of last three matches of the night really. Cross is coming off of a comedy performance in Dublin and this really isn't the qualifier he'd want to face in a race to six, 0.25u de Zwaan 5/2, he's good enough that even against the world champ he's over 40% to win, this is a short race and he was pretty clinical this evening.

Sixteen games, eight bets, got to be something for everyone here, although it's another day where we're going hard on the underdogs. It worked today, didn't it?

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