Monday, 12 November 2018

Bet on out of form player against van Gerwen. It works sometimes!

That was quite nice, but what for today?

Cross/Searle - After the Webster/Taylor incident two or three years back, I don't touch dead rubbers, and the odds look close enough to correct in any case. There might be small Searle value, Cross only needs three legs to lock up the group and a Searle win would give him the potential for more ranking points, but no.

Gilding/Durrant - Might be small value on Gilding here, but probably not - he needs a 5-0 to stand any chance of progressing so one leg for Durrant and it likely falls apart. Duzza just needs the win here and he should be professional enough to do that.

Whitlock/Price - Line's a flip and I'm thinking it's close. Price tops the group with a win, and just needs three legs to advance. With this being the second game, Whitlock will know exactly what he needs to do - if Durrant loses, it's just a win, but if Durrant wins, he's going to need a big win, at least 5-2. That said, if Durrant does lose then Price knows he's already through...

Suljovic/Schindler - Is there small value on Martin? Probably not - he must win by four to stand any chance as that'll put him ahead of Mensur, and then hope Mitchell gets a shelling, which seems unlikely. Probably just playing for pride here is Schindler, with Mensur needing a 5-3 to guarantee advancing Suljovic is likely not letting up here.

Bunting/Mitchell - Can Scotty get through here? Both players have been chucking some very nice stuff this weekend, Bunting can afford a deciding leg loss to advance with certainty, but a win to sweep the group would be nice. Mitchell needs to outperform Suljovic, it's basically that simple, and the good news for our BDO fans is that he'll know in advance what that is.

Hopp/Williams - Both have plenty of work to do here. Williams must win by at least two legs, and really more unless he wants to rely on Wright to really hammer Payne, a result he needs anyway, it just becomes a question of scoreline. Hopp will advance with a 5-1 result, while a smaller win might be enough if Wright does beat Payne. I'm thinking a tiny nibble of 0.25u Williams 13/8, he's shown just about enough here and season long to make me think he can extend his tournament.

Wright/Payne - Peter tops the group with a win, a 5-4 defeat also probably likely to be enough. Payne's in a decent spot, if Hopp loses then Payne should be safe if he can pick up a few legs, and like Mitchell earlier he'll know the permutations. Wright could easily be safe by the time the match starts, and with it being the more critical game for Payne, let's go with it given the model thinks it's a good bet - 0.25u Payne 16/5.

van den Bergh/McGeeney - Our only straight shootout, winner moves on, loser goes home, Dimitri's easily outperformed McGeeney so far, nearly beating Cross while Mark averaged sub 80, while averaging a bit higher against Searle where they both had the same result. It's a stage game which'll help the Belgian, but 4/9 isn't quite enough odds to justify a bet here.

In the other groups which play tomorrow, we've got straight elimination games between Brown and Harms and then White and Unterbuchner, with Wade/Webster and Anderson/Hine being dead games, while in the other groups van Gerwen just needs a win against Murnan to join a likely group winner in Clayton, who faces Robson. Gary has an outside chance but needs a 4-1 win to overhaul a big leg differential, assuming van Gerwen wins. The final group is Smith looking to get a win against Barney to top the group, he just needs four legs to advance, or a Ratajski loss. A 5-3 Barney win puts them level on everything, so if that happens and Ratajski wins, I guess we have a nine dart shootout? Ratajski just needs a win to move through against Smith-Neale, while Adam requires a minimum of a 5-3 win, ideally 5-2 or better to avoid tiebreak scenarios, and then to hope Barney loses. It's a good old mess as it always is.

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