Sunday, 18 November 2018

Grand Slam final day

So we have an Anderson/Price final. Gerwyn basically has to be back in the Premier League at this stage, he's done so much in the TV events as well as winning a European Tour event, I really can't see a scenario where he's left out. That was a great run of legs to get things done at the end, I wasn't watching but Suljovic letting him win four legs in succession in six visits makes you wonder a touch. Meanwhile Anderson got home, van Gerwen basically just gifting him a few legs - the eighth, sixteenth and twenty-fourth looking really bad which gave Anderson three breaks, if he can just hold in eighteen darts in all of those he leads 15-13 rather than being out. Then again, Anderson was putting on great pressure - 107 average when he's losing the legs is requiring van Gerwen to finish as quickly as he did, and the legs he did win were quick (five legs in four visits and another four in five visits isn't bad at all).

So to the final - really can't look past Anderson. The projections from year long stats say 74/26 Anderson, which with Price being 9/2 might be worth a bit of a stab at the underdog. He was certainly putting up enough power legs against Suljovic to make you think it's possible. Since the summer break however it tilts towards Anderson overwhelmingly - 89/11. When you think that Price is in form, that should draw a huge red flag if you were thinking about betting Price. I don't like going for handicaps as a win and a loss could easily be decided by who wins the bull, so I might just have a small casual punt for funking value, evens for Price to get up to 11 legs doesn't seem too bad I guess.

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