Thursday 22 November 2018

PC Finals round 1 bets

Afternoon, main stage:

de Zwaan/Klaasen - 0.5u de Zwaan 4/7, Jelle's really not played anywhere near well enough to get home in this one often enough.

Hopp/West - no bet, they're correctly summising that West is the favourite and it's about what my projections suggest. It's nearly a West bet, but not quite, watch for Hopp steam I guess. Maybe if you have access to a German bookie and can get on West at better odds?

Brown/van de Pas - 0.5u Brown 4/6, if anything this is a better bet than the de Zwaan bet, van de Pas was parachuted in at the last moment and has been poor all season, it's weird that the post-Matchplay sample favours Benito but I'm going to put that down to sample size weirdness, he did have that one good game against, who was it, Michael Smith I want to say? If that's the whole winning sample or near it it will skew projections.

A Lewis/Hunt - 0.25u Hunt 4/1, at a one in three shot on the season long projections and even better of recent, I think this is worth the shot, Hunt's kind of been threatening to do something good for a while now, could this be the time?

Whitlock/K Anderson - 0.25u Anderson 13/10, I'm still yet to be convinced that Whitlock is the better player. The numbers shouldn't lie here, it's a big event for Kyle defending nothing and he ought to step up here.

Gurney/Thornton - 0.25u Thornton 3/1, Rob's been playing just about well enough on occasions that there's a bit of value here. Pressure is on Gurney to do something, as with recent developments he could easily be on the outside looking in to the Premier League.

Wade/Smith - 0.25u Smith 7/2, this should be a lot, lot closer than the bookies suggest. Wade's clearly not playing badly, but Smith is playing some very nice stuff and has been doing all season, it was only 6-5 in Gibraltar between these two and in the World Series finals if he pins some doubles that could have been similarly close.

Afternoon, second stage:

Dolan/Barnard - 0.25u Dolan 4/5, this is close to a no bet, but given Dolan's greater experience in major championships and better recent stats, I'm going with it. 60% chances season long is just enough on its own.

Payne/Searle - no bet. I can barely split these and the bookmakers' can't either. Could be one that comes down to who wins the bull, it's that tight.

Aspinall/Schindler - no bet. I've got this really close, so perhaps there's a potential nibble on Nathan at 11/8, especially if you factor in recent form, but Schindler's exponential growth of stage experience of late could be key.

Clemens/Gilding - 0.25u Gilding 6/5, season long there's not much here, but of late this looks a good Gilding shot, Clemens has yet to really translate his game to the stage (heck, he's not even been able to get there as often as he should do).

Joyce/Lennon - no bet. 3/4 Lennon looks close enough to where the projections are. A shorter projection over the last few months loves Lennon, so if there's not enough bets for you already, maybe what the hell? He's certainly got the stage experience advantage.

King/Stevenson - 0.25u Stevenson 2/1, he's doing just about well enough that this could be on. Over a 40% win projection season long and nearly 50/50 on more recent stats makes the price offered look tasty.

Bunting/North - no bet. Season long makes me want to bet North, more recent games make me want to bet Bunting, in these spots the correct answer is usually not to bet at all, so I won't.

Mansell/Razma - 0.25u Razma 21/20, getting odds against on a 55% projection seems just fine.

Chisnall/J Lewis - no bet. This is real close to going on Jamie, and I wouldn't blame you if you did, but I wonder whether it being the second stage will make a difference, Lewis brings his best stuff on the big stage. Maybe if it's flexed to the main stage if they have time, go with it?

Evening, main stage:

White/Taylor - no bet. Season long line looks basically spot on. Looking at more recent stats we should pile on White, but in TV events that has generally not ended well at all.

G Anderson/Tabern - no bet. Tabern at around 15/2 might potentially be live, but you've got to think after last weekend Anderson will bring his best game and Alan can't live with that.

Cross/Reyes - no bet. Nearly went with Cross based on recent form, it's just about profitable at 2/5 on the season long stats and clearly is after the summer, but you just don't know with either of these players.

Ratajski/Price - no bet. 6/4 on Krzysztof is nearly value given I'm thinking he's in the mid-40's for how often he wins, but playing off Ratajski's form in short formats against Price's form and confidence in all formats, I don't know. Best to leave it alone, if more money comes in on Gerwyn and the line shifts then take a look.

Wright/Alcinas - 0.1u Alcinas 5/1, another game between a dangerous Spaniard and a middling form top five player. This time we've clearly got the odds to bet, seeing Alcinas above 30% to win over the course of the season, and even more if we filter more recently. The only real question is whether we actually bet more.

van Gerwen/Edgar - no bet. Market doesn't seem to be overvaluing van Gerwen for once, Matt at 10% being offered a best of 11/1 isn't of interest.

Smith/van der Voort - no bet. It's close to a bet on Vincent, I've got him having a bit more of a shot than the 3/1 suggests but there's not enough edge, and the much improved chances based on more recent games doesn't really convince me enough - Michael's picking up his game at the right time.

Evening, second stage:

Wattimena/Burton - 0.25u Burton 9/5. I've been betting against Wattimena quite a bit as the numbers don't stack up. Chuck in a player who's pulling similar, if not better, numbers who's been pretty decent in these short formats all year, and yes we will take nearly 2/1.

Henderson/Cullen - 0.25u Henderson 7/4. Weird game to have on stage two? Can't split them all year, Hendo's doing better statistically of late, Hendo's a solid underdog in the market so we'll go with that.

Clayton/M Webster - no bet. It's a similar game to the Bunting game in terms of analysis really, Webby's done just enough all year that 9/4's worth looking at, of late, it's the other way around.

Evans/Dekker - no bet. Nearly enough for Dekker, 13/10 at north of 45% chances looks OK, and he does better in recent games (and likes this venue it seems), but I think Evans will have the confidence from the final he made.

Wilson/van den Bergh - no bet. Dimitri's installed as the market favourite at about the line I think is correct, so happy to move on to the next game.

Noppert/Rodriguez - 0.25u Rodriguez 7/4, I think Noppert's the favourite here but really not by as much, seeing Rowby having around a 45% shot. Sure, there'll be games where Rowby plays complete trash, but having won his worlds qualifier I'm guessing he might show up. Might this be a game where his trash games resulting in losses inflates his projections a bit? Maybe, we'll find out. He's got plenty of bad winning legs in the stats.

Dobey/Meulenkamp - 0.25u Dobey 19/20. Bookmakers can't separate them, but I'm seeing Dobey with a solid near 60% chance over the course of the season. Over the shorter course it's more even, but it wouldn't make it a bad bet.

D Webster/de Graaf - 0.25u de Graaf 9/4, this could be one where Jeffrey's been under the radar enough that his winning chances are understated. Then again, Jeffrey's one like Rowby where the games where he plays bad (and he's incredibly hot and cold, maybe more so than anyone on the circuit) doesn't get truly reflected in the stats. Still, north of 2/1 with around a 40% probability of the win season long (and he's actually the favourite of late) looks decent to me.

Beaton/Huybrechts - no bet. Some good games on stage two this evening, isn't there? The line is a flip, as Beaton's only at 53% season long against Huybrechts I can't recommend anything. It's one where it feels like Beaton should be the favourite, and also one where if we just look after the summer break, it leans more to Beaton at a 60/40 split, but I'll avoid it.

I'm making that bets on half the games, it seems like the right ratio, if you're betting on everything you're doing it wrong, but in this sort of tournament we're probably going to get shots to utilise wider knowledge of the players and spots where there's favourites that are too short too often, which tends to be where most of the bet suggestions have come from historically. Let's go!

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