Tuesday 13 November 2018

Grand Slam day 4 bets

We ran through the permutations yesterday so I'll not repeat myself, was a real pity that Durrant couldn't make it through the group with Price throwing away a basically won position, other than that not a great deal of surprise, Payne managing to get enough legs on the board to advance ahead of Hopp but not the last one he needed for the win to give me the double. Today:

Wade/Webster - Dead game, Webby getting the win might be worth the tiny punt as it should push him into third and he'll know the extra couple of grand might be critical when it comes to retaining a tour card at the end of next year.

Anderson/Hine - Also a dead game, Hine realistically too far back to grab third in the event he did pull off a miracle, 1/7 Ando looks to be close to my projections so while it's probably safe to put into an acca, I won't be recommending an outright punt.

White/Unterbuchner - 0.5u White 1/2, he is that much better than the German and it'd take a real TV special from White to not get through here.

Brown/Harms - Market seems a bit close here? Brown's generally outperformed Harms and he's only rated 60/40? I really don't see how that's close to correct, 0.25u Brown 4/6, would probably go more but Harms hasn't really helped sample size with the drubbing he got versus Wade.

van Gerwen/Murnan - Now we get to the complicated groups, but this isn't a complicated match, 1/16 is a bit too short to bet, but not by much.

Clayton/Robson - This ought to be Clayton's, but Gary's shown just about enough that 8/15 isn't really a tempter.

Ratajski/Smith-Neale - Battle of the World Masters, Smith-Neale being very much the definition of a live dog, although the 35% I'm seeing is more or less where the market lies, so no thanks.

Smith/van Barneveld - The market here is clearly too close and 0.25u Smith 3/4 with Barney looking fairly ordinary and it only being four missed match darts that make this not a dead rubber. Only real danger is that Smith-Neale pulls the upset and Smith knows he's already through, or otherwise Smith gets the legs he needs and pulls back a bit. He ought to be too professional for that though.

Will look at the first knockout games later this evening probably.

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