Sunday 25 November 2018

Briefly interesting hypothetical

Why I'm still trying to work out why Gurney went for bull with one dart in hand at 66, which makes less sense than any reasonable route I've ever seen used, here's a hypothetical that was brought up by casualfan.gif that I'm watching the final with:

"The bull should be worth more, as it's so much smaller than the treble"

OK, that's more interesting than a corporation with eight figures worth of prize money still not seemingly having any actual rules as to which players get into their richest tournament of the year less than 24 hours before they make the draw, but go on - if we say the 25 stays 25, and whatever we make the bull be an out for however much we make it (i.e. if we make it worth 61, we can take out 181 by going T20-T20-bull), what's the breakeven point (in steel tip) where we stop going at treble 20 and start going at bull instead?

1 comment:

  1. Looking at some statists posted by Ochepedia, the bull percentage by PRC pros is roughly 25% bull, 60% 25s, 15% outside. With this distribution, you'd have to make the red bit worth 72 to even out to the average score of ~34 when a PDC pro throws at T20.