Saturday 30 March 2019

Hildesheim day 2 bets

Not sure if we learned anything on day 1. Gilding's doing perhaps a bit better than we thought he is maybe, Knopf is only the third player in the last twelve months to win a best of six only taking one leg in eighteen darts or better (Robbe did it against van der Meer last month, James Wilson also did it against Kanik in October) in what might have been the worst match seen on the European Tour outside of Gibraltar, Kanik did surprisingly well so will give him credit even though he lost, I suppose the big surprise was Gabriel Clemens losing to Dudbridge - 4/19 on doubles doesn't help with Mark hitting over 50%, but it was only really leg 8 where that cost him, missing three clear at tops to break and lead 5-3, he only had one other leg where he missed a double and lost and that was leg 2 at the end of a 108 combo.

So, today:

0.25u Webster 8/5 v Humphries - come on now. I know Darren's not had the hottest start, but I'm seeing this as a coinflip. Maybe even slightly favoured towards the Demolition Man. Extend to twelve months and Cool Hand is still around 50/50.

White/Hughes (again, really? Third time this month) is too close to call and as the bookies have it evens we'll leave it there.

0.1u Koltsov 15/4 v Wade, this is a flier, Wade's obviously playing really, really well of late, but Boris brought his A-game yesterday and we know that said A-game ought to be able to beat Wade one time in four. This could easily go wrong but it's worth the shot I think.

0.25u Clayton 4/7 v Stevenson, I think that even if you take a twelve month sample, Clayton wins more than two in three which makes the bet slightly decent, but he's playing better in 2019 comparatively speaking than Simon is, where it's more like three in four. Simon was alright in the second half of his game yesterday which is a minor warning sign, so I'm tempering the bet to just a quarter of a unit rather than the half I was originally going to shoot for.

2u Lewis 1/14 v Knopf, this could be 6-0 in absolutely zero time. Kevin averaged 72. Enough said.

Nothing on Wattimena/Siepmann, this should be Jermaine's and he's a hell of a lot better than Steffen, but 1/3 feels around where it should be, Siepmann didn't have to do much to beat Mickey but what he did was just fine and ought to be enough to claim some legs and maybe keep it close.

Nothing on Price/Dudbridge either, this should be easy for Gerwyn, but at 1/6 we need to know it'd be really easy, and Mark's doing just about enough that he could nick this around 15% of the time.

Nothing on Wilson/Robbe, Mario wasn't outstanding against Langendorf, Lethal Biscuit has had a bit of an anonymous start but is doing around well enough where a 2/5-5/2 line looks accurate.

0.25u Boulton 23/10 v Gurney, if the bookies are going to keep sleeping on him I'm going to keep betting. The 2019 stats actually call this a coinflip, and expanding to twelve months to increase sample still give him over 40%, although the vast bulk of his stats come from this year.

Cullen/Aspinall's a miss for me, 2019 I'm thinking 60/40 Nathan, last twelve months 55/45, market has it 3/4, let's just enjoy the game.

Cross/Meulenkamp is a miss, if we look at the last twelve months Ron might be small value at 9/2 with the chances of grabbing the win at about one in four, but this year Rob's playing better and it's nearer one in seven, which takes a bet out of the equation.

Passing on the Wright/Gilding game, there's not really enough data on Gilding to make us think that a 1/4-10/3 split isn't going to be massively incorrect.

0.25u van den Bergh 4/7 v Bunting, this is primarily based on Stephen's very slow start to the season, projections on 2019 form think Dimitri's over 75% to win the game, there's a lot of variance in his game but stage + confidence should iron that out against a misfiring Bullet.

Suljovic/Evans is a no bet, if there was small value it'd be on Ricky, but Mensur's in good form so that the effective 2-1 chance for Evans reduces to a 70/30 shot, at 11/4 it's close but as mentioned in the preview this seems horrible stylistically for Ricky.

0.1u Brown 17/2 v van Gerwen, this is one of those that looks really dumb a large percentage of the time, but Michael's off his game just enough that in 2019 Keegan is forecasting to claim a best of 11 around 25% of the time - Keegan played really well yesterday in opening up a lead then stopping a fightback from Razma, he can't miss as many doubles as he did yesterday, but it's worth the shot.

Chisnall/King line with King just the right side of 2/1 looks close enough to me, the line may be ever so slightly favoured to Dave too much, but it's not enough to even think about a bet with Mervyn not playing that great against Portela yesterday.


  1. Another pick omg... Van Der Bergh yea great pick really he almost lost yesterday he was so weak and on this match as well so pathetic throws. Can't finish 75 omg

  2. Hopes you fucking motion die with van Bergh too!!!

  3. Fucking clown with prediction because 75 percent should winning Ng omg. Who the fuck is who is predicting like kid. He is so useless and you seems as well