Friday, 22 March 2019

Leverkusen round 1 bets

One thing that is an improvement this year is that the qualifiers the day before are on Dart Connect, so I can get a bit more of a read on random players (which should pop up a lot more this season, at least on the evidence of yesterday). Sadly, they still seem to be using the awful dartsdata/sportradar service for the main event, which seems to think Rob Cross and Gerwyn Price called in sick yesterday, so we can't have that many nice things it seems.

Pipe/Meikle - I'm seeing this fairly close, but with Pipe having a bit of an edge in 2019, full sample it's a straight coin flip, 11/10 is tempting but it's not quite enough.

Jirkal/Borland - Who knows. Borland 6-1'ed Lennon to make it with a decent average, we don't know what Jirkal did in his qualifier but he wasn't overly hot at Q-School on the averages. Could end up missing obvious Borland value but too unknown really.

Dennant/Razma - 0.25u Razma 4/6, Dennant's done little to suggest Madars doesn't win this 60% of the time.

Herz/Taylor - Taylor ought to be very safe given Herz's 70's to low 80's averaging in the qualifier, but he's 1/5, so no.

Smith/Williams - 0.5u Smith 2/7, this is a bit more of a safer proposition, Ross has been good for some time now and the 80-something Ricky was averaging in the challenge tour really shouldn't threaten.

Hunt/van Trijp - Similar line, but 0.1u van Trijp 3/1, Danny was, final round aside, scoring decently in the qualifier to the point where winning one in four doesn't seem a ridiculous option.

Evetts/Atkins - Nothing here. Atkins' scoring in the Challenge Tour was alright, line's about 70/30 Ted so I think Evetts has enough form that the line seems fair.

Plaisier/Artut - 0.25u Plaisier 21/20, this is purely based on Wesley averaging consistently more than Jyhan did in their respective qualifiers.

Edgar/Ratajski - Into the evening session, 0.5u Ratajski 4/11, the Pole's at 80% year long and 90% in 2019 on projections, love Edgar TV but I think it might be cancelled after one episode this season.

de Zwaan/Payne - No bet, if de Zwaan was showing whole year form lumping on him at slightly odds on would be automatic but 2019 they're showing opposite ends of their form guide to the point where I see no advantage to betting on Jeffrey.

Huybrechts/Kurz - Kim's strongly odds on, Nico didn't show anything in the qualifier (mid-80's plodding the last three games, mid-70's nail fest in the first couple) to make me think it's wrong.

Wilson/King - Mervyn's shorter than 1/3, this should be safe for an accumulator I'd think, but Jason's doing just enough on the Challenge Tour that I don't think this is completely automatic.

Rosenauer/Durrant - There's a rogue 2/13 on Glen on Sportingbet. If you don't think that gets palped, go with it, but it probably does, everywhere else Glen's unbackable.

Edhouse/van den Bergh - 0.25u van den Bergh 1/2, he's tracking at a nearer 1/3 clip in 2019, and that's on the floor. Ritchie's playing well but this seems a real bad draw.

Beaton/van Barneveld - Market's remarkably close. I think it should be the other way around, but maybe Barney's got just enough confidence in the last week that he'll outperform his stats. Beaton did blob both Pro Tours at the weekend to be fair.

Jones/van der Voort - 2/1 line looks just about perfect on a full year sample. It oddly might be a bit closer on 2019 stats, but that seems counter intuitive so I'll avoid the game.

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