Saturday 23 March 2019

Leverkusen day 2 bets, brief day 1 summary

I think most things went as expected yesterday. Was a bit surprised to see Razma throw that game away, although to be fair Dennant played well, Kim Huybrechts is a very lucky boy, nobody really stood out as putting in a great performance - Adam Hunt maybe? A lot of the new players and those returning for a while didn't really do it, maybe it's nerves and we'll give them a pass. A couple of things I picked up on:

Note Dimitri's fourth visit here. I think a lot, lot more players should do this when needing 68 with two darts remaining - go just about as far towards the double as you think you can safely go without going out of the board. If you hit it, great, you're on double 16, which is a much nicer breakdown at least than double 7, you can't say that it's a nicer double as they're right next to each other. That he did this with Edhouse not on a finish is bizarre, but we'll leave that. Also this:

I love love love Barney going 25 on the first dart here. Recognising that Beaton isn't on a finish that he's guaranteed to get, he takes the route that gets him down to tops if he just hits singles - if he went something like 20-17-10 he'd still need to waste a dart next visit if he returns to be on a double. Of course, he went out anyway, but at least the thinking is right.

So today, what have we got?

Webster/Jirkal - Pavel didn't need to do much at all against a pretty disappointing Borland, this isn't a bad draw but I think Darren, even though he's not started that well this year, should be strong enough. This is one of three games that isn't listed on oddschecker for some reason so I'm just checking bet365, Webster's 2/7 which is probably about right.

Wade/Plaisier - James is huge odds on here, this seems fine, neither Plaisier or Artut played well and only one leg was finished in fifteen darts, and it wasn't by Plaisier. At shorter than 1/8, just put it as a banker and move on.

White/Pipe - Justin came through Ryan Meikle in an OK game yesterday, he's playing well enough that he's not a complete outsider, but there's no bet - Ian's started off the floor season well, he's 2/5 and I'm reading it as 70/30 so next game please.

Price/Taylor - Also oddly not on oddschecker. Price is around 2/9, I don't think there's value there, Scott's not a complete bunny but a lot of the legs he's won both yesterday and at the UK Open were fairly slow, which Price will jump all over.

Chisnall/Evetts - Probably the first interesting game, Ted got past Atkins but it wasn't a pretty game, I'm seeing this as identical to the White game in how it might play out - Evetts not completely dead and having around a 30% shot, so the line looks right.

Clayton/Hunt - Not a bad performance from Adam yesterday at all, all but one leg in fifteen darts, 6/7 on doubles as well is nice. Clayton should be a step up in class from van Trijp who did fine really, it's nearly close to Hunt value though, I'm seeing his win chances at 38% on 2019 form, 36% over the past twelve months - we're seeing 7/4, which I don't think is quite enough, although if you watched his game and think he's on his game, then don't let me stop you punting.

Smith/Ratajski - First of two intriguing games to end the session, Krzysztof got into a little bit of a pickle against Edgar, needing a deciding leg, and will clearly need to play better here. We're seeing 9/5 as the price on the Pole - on 2019 form he's just short of 43% to take this. Over the last twelve months he's at 36% which is a lot closer to the line. I'm not up to date as to whether there is still any lingering issue with Smith and his leg, but if there is that's only a bonus, the average in the Premier League on Thursday tips the balance for me - 0.25u Ratajski 9/5.

Gurney/de Zwaan - Jeffrey came through Josh Payne with ease, but wasn't spectacular, similar to all of 2019 really. 2019 stats see this as a flip with Daryl having the tiniest of edges - to show how far Jeffrey's off the pace, over the last twelve months I'm seeing it 60/40 in favour of de Zwaan. Jeffrey's 5/4 and I can pass this, 2019 form says this looks right, and Daryl's right off the back of the biggest confidence boosting performance you can get.

Lewis/van den Bergh - Evening session now, and a real tasty one to start which the bookies can't split, Adie just being favoured at 5/6 compared to 11/10 for the Belgian. Dimitri was alright yesterday against Edhouse who was a touch disappointing. Full twelve month stats say this is a flip, 2019 stats reckon stab at Dimitri, seeing him as a favourite in the high 50's percentage wise. I'll pass though - Adie's got to be hugely confident following winning a title, and there is a heck of a lot of variance in Dimitri's stats, his winning average is nine points higher than his losing average, which is enormous (Lewis is at four and as such, despite being behind in winning average which is giving Dimitri the edge on projections, on overall points per turn Lewis is a point ahead). Let's just enjoy this one.

Wattimena/Durrant - I talked about this one a bit in the preview, Glen's got here comfortably enough despite Rosenauer putting up a fair bit of a fight to start to pull it back. Glen's around the odds I thought it would be, a best price of 4/7 with a mid-60's win percentage projection doesn't interest me.

Cullen/van der Voort - Vincent was safe enough in seeing off Wayne Jones 6-2, continuing a run of good form with a fine performance, Jones only really threatening in one leg where he left 16 after nine darts. Cullen is somehow the favourite - he was good in Europe last year, sure, but this is a fresh start, over twelve months I've got Vincent at just over 60% to win, and he gets a couple of points higher on 2019 stats. 0.25u van der Voort 13/10.

van Gerwen/King - Quick one to analyse this, 0.1u King 13/2, over a short race King should claim this one time in four. Sure there's a possibility that van Gerwen decides to avenge his UK Open loss to King and steamrollers him, but this is a huge price where King has a win over a longer distance this month. Mervyn's going to have to play a lot better than yesterday though.

Cross/Beaton - Steve got past van Barneveld in a fairly close one where Raymond had his chances, I can't see Steve repeating this though. He's just longer than 3/1 and on 2019 data Cross should win about three in four. Move on...

Suljovic/Dennant - No real data on Dennant to project, he did OK yesterday and might not be completely dead, but Suljovic ought to be too strong. Mensur at 1/4 or there abouts feels right.

Whitlock/Smith - Whitlock is the favourite? Really? On 2019 form I'm seeing this as 65/35 in favour of Smudger. 0.25u Smith 6/5.

Wright/Huybrechts - 0.5u Wright 2/5, this is all about recent form. Over the last twelve months this looks about right, but in 2019 I'm seeing Snakebite up above 80% on chances to win. Peter's been playing great in 2019 as was highlighted in the season so far post earlier in the week, and this price looks tempting against someone who gave up seven match darts to a relatively unknown German qualifier.

Hopefully something to take your fancy there. Back probably tomorrow morning with last 16 info.

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