Friday 1 March 2019

UK Open round 4 bets

Less than an hour to go and oddschecker seemingly isn't moving so I've wired up Hills, 365 and Chandlers which should give there or there abouts best value:

van Gerwen/King - no bet, would be on King if it was but 9's isn't tempting enough
Cross/Webster - no bet, annoyingly the line splits the difference between the samples in the previous post
Anderson/Beaton - 0.1u Beaton 5/1, basically a play on Ando not being fit, he's showing over 20% chances so this seems not to be losing on value even if there wasn't that added bonus
Smith/Henderson - no bet, line's floating around the 5/2, 11/4 Hendo area which looks accurate
Gurney/Robinson - no bet, 1/8 Daryl looks acca safe but he did get smacked about something silly yesterday so who knows
Price/Cullen - 0.5u Price 4/7, should never be that close on current form
Wright/Suljovic - no bet, bookies can't split and I can barely do the same, was close yesterday so probably the same again
Wade/Wilson - no bet, line is accurate with the 2019 sample, over the last twelve months I'd look at the Biscuit but Wade's been different gravy the last six months
Whitlock/Dekker - 0.25u Dekker 7/4, Whitlock's form is that bad
Chisnall/Humphries - no bet, was hoping that we'd get a bit of value on Luke but the market's already adjusted, pesky contenders matches
White/Hughes - no bet, bookies already adjusted to the possible Yozza value train
Clayton/Monk - no bet yet again, I think Monk's live but only around 30% live which is where the line is
Lewis/Lewis - 0.25u A Lewis 8/13, seems about break even on the large sample but Jamie's not started 2019 great and the numbers show that
Aspinall/Kist - 0.5u Aspinall 4/9, straight value, Nathan's much, much better than Kist and had a great opening game
Bunting/Lennon - no bet, so so so want to fire on Lennon at 6/5 but there isn't the edge
West/Searle - 0.25u West 4/5, Searle's doing alright but rumours of West's demise seem a bit exaggerated
Hopp/Nentjes - no bet, 8/15 on Hopp isn't a bad price but Geert's done alright and I don't want to start backing Hopp with small edges after laying on demand all last year
Wattimena/de Zwaan - 0.25u Wattimena 7/4, Jermaine's been doing just as well as Jeffrey of late so let's see if he can keep it going
Anderson/Payne - 0.5u Anderson 8/13, line just seems closer than it should be for reasons I can't work out
Huybrechts/Hudson - 0.25u Hudson 12/5, he seems like more of a live dog than he's listed at, possibly on name value
van den Bergh/Evans - 0.25u van den Bergh 1/2, Ricky looked pretty ordinary earlier, Dimitri looked excellent and the larger samples of numbers agree with a DvdB bet
Dolan/North - 0.25u Dolan 10/11, seeing high-50's chances for Brendan is just about enough given North seems a bit away from what he was showing in the worlds and earlier
Klaasen/Razma - 0.5u Razma 6/5, Jelle shouldn't be the favourite in this one and I can't remember the last time he held a game together for more than six legs
Brown/O'Connor - no bet, bookies have it close, so do I
Ratajski/Murnan - 0.5u Ratajski 8/15, simple print money I think
Reyes/Joyce - no bet, looks too close to call on the stats and there's no overwhelming dog on the market to go with
van Barneveld/Stevenson - no bet, want to bet Stevenson on larger stats but surely, surely Raymond steps up here, 2019 numbers aren't as nice for Simon either
van de Pas/Clemens - no bet, Benito's improved just enough that I don't want to go Clemens automatically
Norris/Smith - 0.5u Smith 11/10, Norris is understandably way below his best and has been for a while, Smith is underrated, perfect betting storm here
Schindler/Hunt - no bet, having Schindler winning two in three seems fair
Mansell/Taylor - 0.25u Taylor 10/11, picking a Rileys qualifier against a Pro Tour winner from the last year at odds on is an interesting take but that's how bad Mansell is right now
Woodhouse/Carlin - no bet, appears close enough and the stats are a bit volatile

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for fixed match A.lewis omg.... 4-0 thrown to 4-4 and from 7-5 thrown and fixed for 7-10 lose when had on last advantage and let throw 180 and he didn do anythingm darters fixers