Sunday, 31 March 2019

Hildesheim last 16

Hmm, seems we had a really angry commentor somewhat not getting that tips are not a guarantee of winning. I do hope he then didn't bother to follow through on Keegan Brown. Up 27% for the tournament, 39% if you exclude the huge Lewis bet which is dragging that percentage down, but you picked Dimitri and he lost (in a deciding leg)! You're useless! Got to laugh, when the fun stops, stop.

So van Gerwen went down, which always changes the whole dynamic of the tournament - it seemed unlikely when we were 13 games into the last 32 and 13 seeds have won, but it will allow for a lot of close games and no overwhelming favourite, it is not as if the non-seeds that made it through (Brown, Evans, King) are complete randoms, King's very often seeded for these anyway, Evans has made a final last year and Brown's just knocked off the world number one and is a previous winner on tour as well. So, the last 16:

Wright/Wattimena - Jermaine had no trouble with Siepmann yesterday, didn't play that well but wasn't threatened and didn't need to. Wright was solid enough, Gilding put up a bit of resistance in the latter part of the game but from a 3-0 deficit, breaking twice was a tough ask. The odds look quite a bit in favour of Wright, maybe a bit too much on first glance, so we'll go 0.25u Wattimena 12/5, I'm tracking him on both long and short data samples as better than one in three but not quite up to 40% to win, it's a great chance for him to break through (I said this last week though) and he's going to need to beat a top player to win at some stage, he certainly can here.

Lewis/Cullen - Adrian wasn't tested at all as we expected, while Cullen and Aspinall had one of the standout games of the round, both averaging (conventionally) 101 in a tight 6-4 encounter. I don't see great value in this one, with Adie at 4/5 I'd need a bit more than 40% for Cullen, which we have on the twelve month sample, to think about laying him. Oddly the chances increase for Cullen if we just use this year's stats to where the line looks spot on. Counterintuitive, but it's where we are.

Cross/Gurney - Matchup between two Premier League stars, Gurney was professional against Boulton in a 6-1 win that I didn't think would be quite that easy, Cross broke in the opening leg against Meulenkamp, then held from there, all but one of the five holds being in fifteen or less darts, forcing Ron to find a twelve which he couldn't do. This line seems a bit too close - Cross is 4/7, on the full twelve month sample it's about 2-1 in favour of Cross, which we're not really interested in, but in 2019 it increases to more than 3-1 in favour of Cross. There's a tiny bit more inconsistency in Cross's losing/winning leg split, but 0.25u Cross 4/7, I have the feeling Rob's going to seize the chance that MvG being out has created, and their Premier League matchup was not pretty at all.

White/Bunting - Touched on the Bunting game earlier, White against Hughes was the game of the round, Ian only nicking it in a decider but they produced five twelve dart legs between them, which is an incredible combined standard. White's 4/6, this is plain wrong, if we're talking last twelve months I'd price it 1/2, but in 2019 the form disparity is such that White's up at 83% - which would translate to a 1/5 line. 0.5u White 4/6.

Wade/Webster - James had no troubles beating Boris Koltsov without really getting out of second gear, Webster rode his luck in a fairly average game against Humphries, needing to break in the last leg with Luke waiting on D12 for the match. Wade is very heavily favoured in the market, which seems to be purely on recent form where I'd put Webster at just over 30% to win. Darren being 5/2 thus offers no value, if we went twelve months it'd be a lot closer and I'd bet Webster, but this does feel like one where the recent form is more compelling.

Evans/King - Two of the three non-seeded players meeting here, having beaten Suljovic and Chisnall respectively, Ricky probably playing the slightly better darts but giving up a few too many easy legs. It's evens each of two, looks perfect to me. If we went twelve months I might shade it 10/11 in favour of Mervyn, but neither's even at 50.5% on 2019 data. Avoid this like the plague, unless you like over on the match distance, or bet on 6-5 correct score when you see who's won the bull.

Price/Clayton - All Welsh affair, a repeat of the Austrian final last year that Clayton won, although Price edged their most recent meeting 6-5 in February in Barnsley. Clayton easily took out Stevenson, the first four legs were red hot, he had a spell where he went something like 180 - 140 out - 81 - 180 - 180. Price beat Dudbridge comfortably, didn't need to do a great deal to get the job done. Price is understandably a favourite, nearing 1/2, the recent form would point to Gerwyn perhaps not being short enough (maybe make it 4/9 and not 4/7), whereas the last twelve, where Price's form isn't quite so stratospheric, would say maybe make it 4/6. Leaving this one.

Brown/Wilson - Final game sees Keegan Brown, and we know what he did, against James Wilson, who suddenly has a nice chance after being elevated into the seeds, Wilson ground out a win against Mario Robbe in a deciding leg, Mario having a dart at bull for the match there. The market's very close, Brown just being ever so slightly odds on, they track very closely on a twelve month stat sample, but in 2019 it's about 57% for Keegan. While he played much better than Wilson did, could we get an example of what always happened when someone beat Phil in that they then underperform in the next game? Very possible.

So just the three bets today, should be back before the quarters.

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