Tuesday, 29 December 2020

CULLEN! NO! WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!

God damnit. At least that makes the match of the year pick a fair bit easier. Noppie completely running out of steam after winning the first two sets puts us from breakeven to down a third of a unit for the tournament, a bit unfortunate really, but we've got six games to look at tomorrow. I'm going to be quick as I don't have the time for real in depth stuff now.

van der Voort/Gurney - Line is fine, Gurney's better, he's about 2-1 favourite better, looked good today, avoid.

Bunting/Searle - Pretty much same analysis as the above, Searle seems about a 2-1 favourite, we can get 8/13 as opposed to 8/15 so it's closer to tempting, but we can still pass on it.

Petersen/Anderson - 0.25u Petersen 11/10, Anderson seems to be put on monkey tilt by anything nowadays, doesn't seem in the right place, Devon played pretty damned well today, and projects as a favourite in the high fifties percentage wise. Of course I'm taking odds against.

Durrant/van Duijvenbode - Hmm, market actually favours van Duijvenbode, yet the data since the restart is liking Durrant a bit more than 60% of the time. If I pull it down to more recent stats that take away the earlier information then it trends towards the line then I'll pass, although I think this might be one that I want to take back, Glen's been in this spot so many more times than Dirk and really didn't do much wrong at all against Baggish.

Price/King - Line looks pretty much spot on. They've got it two to one in favour of Price, if anything I've got it slightly closer, call it 65/35. Nothing here of value.

Chisnall/van den Bergh - 0.25u Chisnall 9/5, honestly the two of these are matched so incredibly closely I can't separate them. And the market doesn't reflect this in the slightest. Getting near 2/1 is simply a must bet.

That's it, will be a bit more detailed before the quarters with more time to work on it.

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