Thursday, 17 December 2020

Day 4 bets

Urgh, that didn't really go to plan - can't really account for de Decker not showing up and Foulkes being much, much better than advertised (and immediately giving a GOAT-level post match interview), but got to be disappointed at Woodhouse looking so incredibly comfortable then seemingly losing all confidence from having a 2-0 sets lead and blowing it. Not as if Lewis was playing that well, last two legs excepted, but it's a blow. Still, we're only down 0.2 units for the event - Gurney got through as expected, although made it a lot tougher than it could have been, Razma was a bit streaky and maybe fortunate but we got the small gain in the bank, Murray did just enough to add us some more into the bank, and in the games we didn't punt on, I don't know what happened to Krcmar after the first set but fair play to Meulenkamp for coming back, Searle was given a decent test by Lauby despite a pretty big average differential, while de Sousa was in a closer game than the 3-1 set score suggested.

Onto day 4, another 8 games to look at:

Mansell/Puha - Tempting to go with Haupai, just out of general laying Mansell principle. But it's really hard to gauge just how much (if any) and what quality match practice he's really had, and we can only get barely better than 6/4, so I think I can pass this one.

Labanauskas/Liu - Game doesn't really hold any interest. Chengan's priced up at 10/1, don't think it's even worth a micro play. Should be 3-0 for Darius extremely comfortably.

Jones/Teehan - Ah, a game with actual data. Would have expected Wayne to be a small favourite in the model before plugging the data in, and he is, it's around the low 60% range. Market has it slightly closer than that, but I think there's enough inconsistency in Wayne's game that we can avoid this one.

Hughes/Hunt - One of two second round games today, and I think it's another one where they're maybe slightly underrating the favourite. It's exactly the same sort of win chances and odds as the previous game, while I don't think that Jamie is as wildly inconsistent as Wayne, he's certainly up and down to some degree, and Adam's maybe outperforming his stats a little bit, so happy to pass it.

van Duijvenbode/Brooks - Evening session here we go, and we've got what looks like a fairly uncompetitive game in the market, with Dirk at 1/4. Bradley's a bit better than that, but not much better, it looks about 75/25 to me, so there's no real value.

Henderson/Kantele - This could be a tough game to watch, Hendo's rated ever so slightly better than 60/40 in the market, which I wasn't thinking would be about right, but it seems like it is. Marko's just not produced enough to even get to a flip.

Humphries/Lim - It's a shame that Luke's really, really good. I definitely want to take a shot on Lim just out of general principle, but we can't even get 4/1. I just can't do it.

Wade/Rydz - OK, finally we've got a bet - 0.25u Rydz 12/5. Think most people could have seen this one coming, we've been talking up Callan for some time now and he's been producing the goods. He's good enough that he only projects as a tiny, tiny underdog. Wade isn't even at 55% in this one. Callan's extremely live and getting well better than 2/1 is definitely worth the shot. Just a case of slightly tidying up his finishing really.

Back tomorrow evening.

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