Tuesday, 15 December 2020

Day 2 bets

Not a great deal to say about day 1, other than big congrats to Diogo, and congrats to Jeff as well, Keane looked a little bit off, thought he'd have kept that a tad closer, but oh well, it's no big deal in the long game. The state of Peter Wright though, jesus.

Joyce/Sedlacek - Almost small value in Ryan here. Karel's played some pretty good stuff of late, but I think Ryan will just be that little bit too strong and claim this around two times out of three, maybe slightly more. There's a couple of spots offering a little bit better than 1/2 on Joyce, I don't hate grabbing that but I don't see real significant value, so nothing recommended here.

Smith/Evans - Thought this might have been priced a bit too closely with oddschecker pointing out a line of 4/6 on Ross, but no, the master computer puts him in the low 60's in terms of probable win percentages. As such, no real value at all, David's definitely competent enough and Ross hasn't had the greatest outcome on this stage previously.

O'Connor/Zonneveld - Similarly priced game in this one, but I think we have a chance to have a stab at this one - 0.25u Zonneveld 11/8, looking at the post-restart stats, Zonneveld's scoring just the right side of 90, whereas Willie's just the wrong side of 89, and that's translating to around a 55/45 edge for Niels here. Somewhat big that Niels is coming off a stage win as well, which will help, think this is definitely worth the shot.

Dobey/Smith - Wow, this is actually priced up pretty closely, we can actually get better than 4/6 on Dobey, and I think we have to take 0.25u Dobey 8/11 that's available on Betfair, I don't think Jeff played that fantastically tonight and the first two sets in particular were more a case of Keane giving him chances to win really, really slowly, looking at the stats Chris projects between 70 and 75%, so 8/11? Yes please.

Hopp/Mathers - Real hard to gauge Gordon's level of play in this one, the question really is how much do we believe in Max. 3/1 on Mathers would be the tempter, but I think Max has been doing just about enough that this seems like a fair line to go with.

Rydz/Bailey - Similar assessment here, although Callan's clearly a much better player than Max is, James qualified below Gordon and seems a little bit weaker, but at the same time the odds are 1/4. I think we can get away with passing this one, it's not going to be hugely profitable to go with Callan here although I think he could have been priced a little bit shorter.

Hunt/Ashton - I thought this might have been worth a play with Lisa being as short as 11/5, given Adam's improvement in form over the past few months, but oddly it isn't, Adam projects at kind of the same winning chances as Dobey does, so while the line does seem to underestimate Adam's chances, it's not by much, so can pass that one as well.

Durrant/Portela - Not touching Glen, question is whether we can punt on Diogo at slightly better than 4/1. I'm inclined to say no - Diogo would have to produce the sort of darts that he did in the first set from the get go, if he gets off to a scrappy start as the first two sets were, Glen, even if a bit out of form, will punish the Brazilian. It could happen, but I don't think it happens anywhere near enough for 4/1 to be any sort of real true value.

That's the lot, back tomorrow evening.

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