Sunday, 20 December 2020

Day 7 bets

Day 6 could have gone a little bit better - basically breakeven as we went 1-1, real shame that Meikle, who didn't play badly at all, just missed a couple of key doubles and had Brown go out from way out on a couple of occasions, fair play to Keegan. Nothing else really shocking, Edgar looked alright on the outshots but may need to up his scoring in the second round, Telnekes/Kenny was predictably close, Lowe slowed down a little bit against Gorbunov and nearly let the Russian back in, Clayton was comfortable against Hendo, while van der Voort and Meulenkamp was surprisingly decent and tight.

Only the evening session tomorrow, so just the four games:

Ratajski/Joyce - Should be a good one this, big one for Krzysztof, a big run in this event and he could push himself into the Premier League equation, and he's favoured around 70/30 in the market. It feels a little bit closer than that, Ryan's had one decent game and Ratajski's not had the greatest record here, projects to be just short of 65/35. The value's on Joyce, but I don't think it's enough of an edge to recommend a bet.

White/Huybrechts - Important game for both players, Ian needs something to keep up around the top 16, while Kim could do with a bit of a run to try to push back to the top 32. Seems to be around 60/40 in favour of White, I think that's slightly too close but I've got this underlying feeling that Ian is going to underperform the projection, and the same the other way for Huybrechts (and we've seen some evidence in the first round that this is the case). Auto backing Ian's worked fine for me in the past, but doing so in the worlds has caught me out a few times, so will pass it.

Price/Lewis - There's not actually value on Gerwyn. He's 1/6, I thought that'd be printing money, but Gerwyn's only at 90%. Should win this, acca safe, no real value for a single bet.

Clemens/Kurz - Line looks bang on here. Gabriel is just shorter than 1/2 and I'm getting a win percentage of just short of 70%. Much like Ratajski, Gabriel's in a spot where he could do with a win to really get things moving, Nico's obviously beaten him in the Super League but this is a different kettle of fish, even if it's not a substantially longer match. Feels like an accurate enough line.

Back tomorrow evening, as we've got all games set it may be earlier than usual.

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