Saturday, 26 December 2020

Round 3 bets

May as well knock them all off in one shot, given I've got the time, will go through in chronological order:

Ratajski/Whitlock - This should, if both players turn up, be the tie of the round, Ratajski's very much a top ten level player and played great against a potentially very dangerous opponent in Joyce in round two, averaging 100, while Whitlock averaged slightly more in an exciting five set slugfest against Darius Labanauskas, and has carved somewhat of a niche in getting big upsets in majors this year, while 18 v 15 wouldn't be that huge, 18 v 2 in the following round maybe? Bookies have this close, but it shouldn't be, 0.25u Ratajski 4/5, year long stats hint that this ought to be a 2:1 game in favour of Krzysztof, so 4/5? We'll take that.

Huybrechts/Searle - Another potentially tight one to start off, with two players coming through round one, Huybrechts getting a free win then coming through a high quality game with Ian White, while Searle got into a struggle with Lauby in the first game before easily dismissing de Zwaan. Searle's priced as the tiny favourite in this one, but he should be a lot shorter, so 0.25u Searle 5/6, he's a clear two and a half points better than Huybrechts on scoring since the restart and is projecting to win even more often than Krzysztof is in the match before. Kim's got a fair bit more experience in these sorts of longer higher profile games, which'll probably count for something, but nowhere near enough to not make this a good play. Maybe even worth a half point play.

van den Bergh/Wattimena - Dimitri was very impressive against Paul Lim, not giving the veteran even the slightest chance, averaging 105, while Jermaine was dragged down into a bit of a battle against Nick Kenny, eventually coming through 3-1. The market thinks this is a bit of a mismatch, with it giving Jermaine less than a one in four chance of coming through this one. That seems a bit harsh on Wattimena, who's gained a lot of experience, and I think they may be slightly overreacting to Dimitri's first game performance and a major win. That said, I don't think Jermaine's got much better than a 30% chance, so I'm happy to avoid it. Don't go sticking van den Bergh in any accas.

Cullen/Clayton - Should be another tight one, Cullen had zero problems with Jones, while Clayton did lose a set against Hendo but never really looked in trouble to come through. Market has Cullen shading this one, I've got Clayton shading it. It's not enough to bet it, I'd have said 10/11 Clayton is a fair line as opposed to 11/10, if you can see that Jonny's won the bull and the line hasn't shifted, that might be enough - it's not something I would do, but I wouldn't hate it if you did it. Maybe just see who wins the bull and take them 3-2 in sets?

Wright/Clemens - Peter came through an ordinary game against Steve West what seemed like weeks ago now, not really looking great but not really being pushed either, while Gabriel was competent enough with a mid-90 average in a four set win over his compatriot Nico Kurz. Line's extremely similar to the Dimitri game, they're not giving Clemens much of a chance here. This seems fair enough - I've got a projection that's extremely close to 75/25, I can't see Peter being quite so bad, and Gabriel's still yet to have that really impressive TV performance.

van Gerwen/Evans - Michael was extremely good against Ryan Murray who asked a lot of questions (which were emphatically answered), while Evans got passed Mickey Mansell in a fairly forgettable game. Obviously here van Gerwen is stupid to one on, it's too short for sure, but it's not long enough on Evans that I want to consider even a tiny punt. Ricky just hasn't done much of anything all year and doesn't seem like the sort of player that'll be able to hold it together against Michael over a seven set match unless van Gerwen seriously regresses from his first game.

de Sousa/King - Day two now, Jose was in a fairly close game with Ross Smith but came through in four sets, King also got through in four sets against Hopp in a match that probably wasn't as close as the scoreline suggests, Mervyn averaging just shy of a ton which was a fair bit better than Jose. Market is indicating that King has ever so slightly more than a one in three shot, call it 65/35. That seems close to perfect - it's a long enough game that Jose's higher level of skill pushes him up to a near 70% chance, but that isn't enough to really recommend a punt, particularly given Mervyn's been playing his best darts of the year at the right time.

van Duijvenbode/Hunt - Dirk got through a last leg decider against Rob Cross after needing to come through a deciding set against Bradley Brooks, while Hunt came through a deciding set against Lisa Ashton before getting through a decidedly out of sorts Jamie Hughes. Market thinks that Dirk wins this one pretty comfortably, putting him over 70% to win. That's a little bit too short for my liking, so I'm going to take a small stab at the upset - 0.1u Hunt 11/4, as I've got him at close to 40% to claim this. I'd normally just take a quarter of a unit, but there's enough of an intangible factor in that Adam's never really done anything on TV compared to Dirk which might make it a little closer. That, and Dirk just won't lose right now.

Aspinall/van der Voort - Nathan should have lost to Waites (again), but got away with it, while Vincent surprisingly got embroiled in a five set tussle with Ron Meulenkamp before coming through, averaging a pretty competent 95. Vincent's the clear dog here, the market reckoning this is a 70/30 matchup, which I think is underestimating the Dutchman slightly here. I think he's got in the high 30's, so I'm going to take a similar small stab - 0.1u van der Voort 11/5, there's not quite enough to go for a quarter unit, Nathan's already dodged one bullet and seems to play disproportionately well here.

Anderson/Suljovic - Ando got through Razma, perhaps a little bit fortunately given Madars was playing well, but he did hit the key legs with decent timing, while Mensur had no real problems dealing with Matt Edgar, both players eventually coming through in four sets. Market favours Ando, but not by that much, while my projections actually give Mensur the tiniest of edges, in and around 53/47. I can pass on that - for one, Mensur's got a fair bit more inconsistency in his game, while Suljovic scores half a point more than Gary on winning legs, hence the projection, he's nearly a full point behind on all legs. Should be close, if you want to go with Mensur based on Gary maybe not being 100% then don't let me stop you.

Price/Dolan - Gerwyn didn't look too good but was able to get through Jamie Lewis, just about, while Dolan didn't have the greatest of games either but was able to get past surprise package Foulkes for the loss of just the one set. Should be an interesting matchup stylistically, Gerwyn comes in as a huge favourite, second biggest of the round, and despite Brendan being generally competent, I don't think it's that unfair a line. Projections I have show Gerwyn taking this 80/20, which is more or less bang on what you can get at the bookies, so will move on.

Durrant/Baggish - Glen didn't need to do much to get past Diogo Portela, who was maybe a bit emotionally spent after his win over Beaton, still would have been nice to see Durrant do a bit more (at least a 90 average maybe?), while Baggish has come through both Heta and Lewis and looks dangerous enough. The market has Danny at a little bit longer than 2/1, we've got some data on Danny from before just the worlds (albeit not much), and the data is saying that Danny isn't a great bet. We've got enough to think that Glen may well underperform what he's been doing since we got back under way, and we've got enough to think that Baggish is a fair bit better than the projections (he actually has a negative consistency score, i.e. he's scoring more in his losing legs than in the ones he won), but I don't think there's quite enough price there. 9/4 is even shorter than he was against Adie.

Wade/Bunting - James got through Callan Rydz easily enough, Callan really not showing anywhere near his best darts, while Bunting was given a huge test by Andy Boulton and was probably a little bit fortunate to have got through the game at all. Seems like a pretty much standard two to one line in favour of Wade on the projections, he's actually a little bit shorter than that in the market, not enough to consider an underdog punt on Bunting though.

Gurney/Dobey - Two of the seeds that seemed a bit in danger get through to face each other, Daryl being given a test by O'Connor and Chris needing to come from behind against Jeff Smith, both of them needing all five sets to get over the line. Market can barely separate them, with a gun to the head lean in favour of Superchin, and I can't even do that. Honestly, they're inseparable. Put them in a worlds final and Daryl isn't even a 50.5% favourite. Better not fuck up the bull in this one.

Petersen/Lowe - Devon got past Steve Lennon in a match where neither could hit doubles, resulting in it becoming incredibly scrappy, while Jason pulled off the shock of the round (at least in terms of biggest seed eliminated) by taking out Michael Smith. If there's marginal value in this one, it's on Devon, I'm getting him winning just about three times in four, and he's 5/11, but that's nowhere near enough to bet, for a few reasons really. First, the edge is tiny. Second, the pressure is on Petersen, and Lowe's basically freerolling. Third, if Jason's able to maintain the level he had against Smith, which was more like his early season form, then the edge would evaporate entirely. Should be a decent game.

Chisnall/Noppert - Final match, Dave lost a set to Brown, Keegan nicking the first set before not really pressuring Chisnall at all, while Noppert was god awful in the first set and a bit against Carolissen, could very easily have been two sets down before he just about pulled himself together and got through by any means necessary, even if it involves barely an 80 average. If Cameron hit those set darts in the second... Same line as the last game with Dave as the favourite, 0.25u Noppert 12/5, Danny's scoring closely enough to Dave that the projection shows it as only 55/45 in favour of Chisnall. So we'll take that. Danny can't be that bad two games in a row, and Dave's always got that implosion on the doubles in there somewhere.

So just the three main plays with a couple of smaller stabs in there. Plenty of others that are close, you can make your own mind up on those.

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