Monday, 14 December 2020

Day 1 bets and other news round up

1u West 1/11 vs Gilitwala, it's still available at that in some places (it was 1/9 yesterday), so get on while you can, while we know little about Amit, I'm going purely off of the FDI ratings, which are indicating that Steve's something like 99% to win. This seems so incredibly safe, even at that price.

Diogo's a tempting punt, getting around 3/1, if only because Steve might not be the player he was, Portela's at least competent, and it's not a long race, but I just can't bring myself to pull the trigger given the relative 2020 form of Diogo. May well regret it. Smith/Barry's accurately priced, seems like a flip. The one to try to gauge, naturally, is Wright against West. Looking at the data I have, this probably ought to be priced around 1/4 Wright. Maybe slightly less on recent form. They've not got up any Wright vs whoever lines, but we can gauge the "Wright stage of exit" market as a proxy, and second round is generally floating around 5/1 to 11/2, with a couple of 7/2 outliers. They have to be factoring in West to win the first round nearly all the time here, so I think that's accurate enough to use as a match line. As such, I doubt there's going to be any real value whatsoever in the second round game.

Elsewhere, we've seen that Q-School has gone to a two level system - ostensibly for coronaparanoia reasons, but I think it's a pretty sensible thing to do, to trim the field down and eliminate the "fun" players and make it a bit more focussed at the business end of things, having smaller fields to allow for longer matches. It's fairly similar to the Swiss method I've advocated previously, so I'm fine with it, the only thing I'd say is they're letting a few too many straight into the latter round if they keep it the same for future years, the entire top 16 of the Challenge and Dev Tours (I know a couple will have got cards automatically anyway) plus every single player who loses their card is a bit too much for me. Maybe the top 10 would have been fine - I think the top 8 got a free entry anyway so that's close enough to a relevant cutoff for me.

Then we've got MAD's big reveal. While a lot of it is a bit LOL, you can't say they've got some sort of a structure in place, there's concepts that appear fresh and entertaining, if done right the Royal Rumble Golden Gauntlet could be hilarious, there seems to be enough of an incentive for higher level players to go for it. The big question is whether club players and the general paying public buy into it, it all seems a bit pyramid schemey and if the bottom end of these things don't work the whole thing collapses. I hope it works to be honest.

No comments:

Post a comment