Friday, 18 December 2020

Day 5 bets

LIM GOAT

With that in the books, let's quickly review everything else - only bet was on Rydz who was quite disappointing, just couldn't get scoring going at all, maybe if he'd have pinned one of those darts for the second set he could have kept grinding, but it wasn't to be. Elsewhere, Mansell had no trouble with Puha who just never got any scoring going and didn't even win a leg, Labanauskas was equally easily through but at least Liu had some moments by nicking a couple of legs, one with a nice checkout, Jones got through an incredibly scrappy one with Teehan which was lacking in a bit of quality, but Wayne'll take it, Hunt got past Hughes who was incredibly disappointing but, as he revealed on Twitter, was basically playing through injury, then in the evening van Duijvenbode got a great come from behind win against an impressive Bradley Brooks, and Hendo got over the line in a real duel against Kantele who just wouldn't go away.

Another eight games tomorrow, here's what we think:

Lennon/Larsson - Real hard one to read. Larsson is actually projecting as a favourite, but that's off a small won leg sample and he's lost nearly twice as many legs as he's won in what I'm looking at. It's around 2/1 in favour of Steve which feels about right to me.

Waites/Campbell - Line's a little bit less than 60/40 in favour of Waites. Not sure what to make of that - Scott's been a lot better in the second half of the season, but Campbell's looked really quite competent in the small samples that we've seen. Would probably lean towards Waites at this sort of line, but as we don't need to bet on it, we can pass.

Huybrechts/Zhuang - I'm not going to start betting on Kim at 1/16, although I probably should do. We've already had one example of real weirdness with an international qualifier we don't know much about so let's not tempt fate.

King/Hopp - 0.25u King 4/6, why is this game so close? Max has done little all year, Mervyn's just off the back of nearly winning a major. If Hopp looked stellar in the first game then maybe, but he looked merely competent, not needing to do much more. We need 60% and I'm thinking Merv's chances are over 70%. More than enough to go with.

Hamilton/Kurz - Nico's the small favourite in this one. We've seen what Nico can do, but it's only ever been somewhat limited, Andy's going to be pretty steady and we know what we're getting. I'm wanting to take Kurz at around 8/11, this could be one where he shows up and romps home 3-0, he's got that in his game, but then again it could be one where the Hammer sticks around, grabs his first set on throw, and it gets a bit tricky, so will pass it and probably regret it.

Boulton/Hedman - You can actually get longer on Deta than you can get on Zhuang. That seems a bit unfair, but Andy's incredibly competent. I just hope that as a minimum she puts up a decent showing.

Heta/Baggish - 0.1u Baggish 4/1, Damon's incredibly good, and should win this, but Danny has shown more than enough over the last 12 months that he's capable of competing with someone of Heta's quality, and can easily take this more often than the 20% we need for this to be a profitable shot.

van Gerwen/Murray - Half tempting to take Murray, but we're not quite getting enough. It's another one where we've got a hugely one sided line, van Gerwen is 1/10, Murray's probably a little bit better than that but not by much (seeing around 15%), MvG seems to be keying in on this one and is picking up at the right time.

Back maybe tomorrow afternoon given we're just waiting on one line for Sunday's schedule to appear.

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