Tuesday, 22 December 2020

Day 9 bets

That was all going well right up until the point where Dirk through a twelve darter to break in the deciding leg. Love Dirk's work, so can't even feel bad about it. Really have to question when, having started 134-134 to leave 233, why he doesn't immediately start on 19's, but hey, whatever works I guess, it's not quite as insane as the Jamie Lewis shot where he goes 18-18-18 on 86, not going for the bull - I mean if you're not going to go for the bull if you miss the treble, then why are you trying to set up double 7?

We'll have the last second round games tomorrow, and with that the last 32 will be known, in terms of today I suppose the big one was Baggish coming through over Lewis, something we thought might happen but just couldn't pull the trigger on. Carolissen would have been an interesting one to watch if he had pinned a dart for a two set lead when Noppert was still asleep. Other than those it was mostly standard, Whitlock/Labanauskas was a bit spicy, but that's about it, let's just go into the final day before the Christmas break.

Evans/Mansell - Is it wrong to say I don't care about this match? Whoever wins is getting smacked up by van Gerwen, neither player really excites me, it seems incredibly unlikely that we're going to get a classic. Market's close enough for me, seems a little bit closer than the 11/8 that Mansell's at, but not by much.

Anderson/Razma - 0.1u Razma 7/2, this seems like a general principle Ando might still be a bit gimpy bet coupled with Madars being the sort of player that can slam down enough in the space of one set that it doesn't matter what Gary does. Projections are saying Razma might take about 30% of the games anyway so it's a fair enough punt in any case.

Bunting/Boulton - Ooh, this one is close to a pick'em with Bunting at 5/6. Does the market think Bunting sucks, or is the secret out on Boulton? It's very, very close to going on Andy, I'm seeing around 55% chances and we can get 11/10, I've just got this niggling feeling that Stephen will just about do enough.

Suljovic/Edgar - Looks to be around 70/30 Mensur in the market. I'm tempted by a little nibble on Mensur here, we can get 4/11, Edgar looked great on finishing but the scoring was mediocre so may not get enough chances, projection says around 80% for Suljovic. Again, this is very close. If you want to go with an acca, then I wouldn't hate you picking Mensur here.

Chisnall/Brown - Keegan did us over in the first round, Chizzy's a bit of a step up in quality here but if Keegan can finish like he did in round one, then who knows. This is similar to the previous game, Chizzy's a little bit of a better price at 2/5, but it a slightly smaller favourite in the projections, and the opponent had the better round one performance. I'll leave this alone, but the same caveat applies, if you want to go for an acca, sticking Dave in is fine.

Wattimena/Kenny - Hmm, projections here kind of like Nick a little bit, looking at the raw data it's mostly due to him mainly losing his inconsistent legs, as such it spitting out Nick claiming this nearly 40% of the time seems a bit unrealistic, so I don't think I'll be betting this one. Nick didn't really do anything in the first round to make me think he's going to grab this, but it's a spot where Jermaine isn't going to be acca safe I don't think.

Aspinall/Waites - 0.25u Waites 13/5 - Scott's been playing really well, came through a tough, tough opening round game, nearly beat Nathan in the last major event, and in the projections it's actually really close to a coinflip. This is due partly to Scott having quite a few godawful legs, but we've seen what he can do against this very opponent and we have no real reason to think he's not at least a one in three shot.

Smith/Lowe - No bet here. This projects in around the 75-80% region for Michael. It'd have been closer earlier in the season but Jason's form has tailed off a bit, and frankly it's a little bit worrying that he recognises it, there's something not quite right psychologically from his interviews, it's as if he's accepting the loss already. As Smith is shorter than 1/5, we're not touching this in an acca, but while I want Jason to regain what he had earlier in the season and pull the upset, I'm not thinking it will be.

Not sure when I'll be back. Will post up a general thoughts post at some stage.

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