Wednesday, 16 December 2020

Day 3 bets

1-1 today, Dobey bailed us out a bit when it was looking a bit ropey early, after Niels looked distinctly ordinary against O'Connor who seemed to be missing a huge amount of doubles. Nothing else really of note, Joyce/Sedlacek looked like a pretty good game which Karel would like to have back, Smith's win over Evans wasn't quite as routine as the scoreline made out, David just missing a few key doubles, as far as the Aussies went Mathers was a bit worse than expected, Bailey a fair bit better, but neither truly threatened their opponents, Hunt and Ashton played out a fun enough game with Ashton not really missing any of the chances she got, then Diogo couldn't really replicate from yesterday despite Glen not looking brilliant.

On to day three, we've got another 8 games, let's see what we've got:

Razma/Suzuki, de Decker/Foulkes - Going to take both of these as the same, as the two players from the Pro Tour are fairly similar, as are the two qualifiers, as are the odds. I really, really can't see either of the Japanese lads threatening in the slightest, so 0.5u Razma 4/11 and 0.5u de Decker 2/7, what we've seen a little bit so far is that some of the international players are underperforming, perhaps from a lack of match practice, especially when considered in comparison to the players from the Pro Tour who are playing day in and day out.

Murray/Ilagan - We can't question Lourence's credentials, but I'm thinking Ryan is pretty darned underrated and, similar to the previous game, maybe Ilagan will have some issues bringing his best game. With the odds being as they are as well, I think we can justify 0.25u Murray 4/5, I'll take the player that's been doing alright for weeks at close to a flip.

Gurney/O'Connor - 0.5u Gurney 4/5, Daryl projects as a much, much larger favourite than the market suggests, seemingly nearly 75%, so while there's just the one book on oddschecker that has this price, it's still clearly good at 4/6. That Willie was unconvincing today is even more evidence that this looks to be a great bet.

Woodhouse/Lewis - 0.5u Woodhouse 8/11, this is just as good a spot as the Gurney game, if not better. Luke's projecting better than 80% to win this one, Jamie's been that out of sorts.

Meulenkamp/Krcmar - Bookies have this as a flip, I'd have thought that given relative forms, that Krcmar would project as a fairly big favourite, at least enough to take evens, but he's only around 55/45 on the projections, so I think I can avoid it.

Searle/Lauby - Ryan's listed as a big favourite here, and it's fairly tempting to take him, but Ryan is not only the shortest price of the day, Danny's probably a fair bit better than the other two big dogs, and I'm not sure that Ryan is that much superior to go with it. Would think this is fairly comfortable, but there's enough level of unknown to pass on it.

de Sousa/Smith - Nearly worth a play on Jose here. 2/5 is very close, I don't see Ross as having much more than 20%, but it's not quite enough. I think factoring in that Smith has got through a pretty competent opponent today and played well in doing so, along with Jose still looking for a first win here, allows things to close that little bit through external factors not to bet.

Back tomorrow evening.

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