Wednesday 1 November 2023

Minor adjustments

Got a little bit of time, so let's look at how I'd adjust my picks given what happened today, will work through in new order:

Evans - Looked basically safe before, got a win, looked very impressive in the match he lost, is probably a lock now
van Dongen - Kind of got fucked over by the draw, but still played solid against Price, has enough in the bank with how things turned out now surely
Edhouse - Great run. Pushed through to win his board and is now clearly on the right side of the cutoff. One more win would be nice, and assuming no horrible draws I wouldn't back against him getting it
Zonneveld - Didn't improve any after getting a tricky draw against Pietreczko, but there were enough people below him not doing much that he should be fine. An opening win tomorrow should make things absolutely safe
Wattimena - Good run to the board final has probably shaded my thoughts from being marginally out to being marginally in. There's enough people within shooting distance that it's not a lock, but he looks a lot better today than he did 24 hours ago so I'm swapping him to the in camp
Brown - Beat an out of form van der Voort then averaged 70-something against Razma. I fear that one win might be enough with how things have transpired, as it's probably going to need two people to make a board final minimum to shove him out. I'm still calling out for now, but last man in seems like a probability
Brooks - Comfortably beaten by Waites. Only £250 above the cutoff as the last man in right now with four players one win away from overhauling him. Still out for me, really needs a great draw to stand any chance
Kuivenhoven - Maik really shook things up with a quarter final run to come from a fair bit back to be the last man out. We thought he might not have enough runway to get over the line but with an additional 3k in the bank, I'm upgrading him to in. Will clearly need one win and may need two given how tight it is, but I'm going to give him the upgrade still, there's enough game there
Burton - Solid run to win his board has put him into contention as well. On the same money as Kuivenhoven, but not playing quite as well. Entirely possible that he gets a decent draw and forces his way in, but I'm going to stick with my initial assessment at this stage
Kleermaker - Getting drawn against Gilding was not ideal and he now drops from provisionally in to provisionally out. I had him as in as of yesterday, but I'm going to downgrade to out, he's now got a couple of players ahead of him who are playing better that we weren't expecting so I am thinking he's going to need a lot of things to go his way
Hughes - A board win has at least given himself a chance. It may be the case that just a board final will be enough, I just don't think he does quite enough tomorrow, we'll see
Rodriguez - Added £750 to keep hopes alive, but I don't think that's going to cut it
Hempel - Did have him in, but got to downgrade to out. Ran into an inspired Vandenbogaerde, and is now in a spot where he must get to the board final just to draw level with the 32 spot as of right now. Seems tricky
Meikle - Got the better of Gurney in round one but then fell apart against Burton in round two. Is on the same score as Hempel, we know he has enough that he can pull it out, but the question is still the same as to whether he can find it
Soutar - We're getting into hero shot stages here, needs a quarter really, didn't play too bad today to add a first roiund win, but seems too far back now
Boulton - Real disappointing to see him draw a fellow Challenge Tour player in Plaisier and throw a 5-4 lead. I still hold hopes but think he couldn't afford a first round exit in either event if we're being realistic
Klose - Not convincing in round one, murdered in round two, doesn't look likely to happen
Krcmar - Now at the stage where people need a semi, and he showed nothing today to make me think he'll get a semi
Killington - Awful game today against Barney probably writes him off for good, losing too much ground and seemingly not playing well today either
Landman - Got the draw he needed against a Challenge Tour player but couldn't get out of the low 80's
Suljovic - Unfortunate to draw Ross Smith, now so far back he needs a final

So right now I've upgraded two and downgraded three. I guess the default choice given points on the board will be Keegan Brown, he does after all need two players to reach a board final to knock him out, so I guess I'll have to actually say he'll be the last man in, but with the huge proviso that it would not surprise me in the slightest if two from the Kuivenhoven/Burton/Kleermaker/Hughes cluster do what's needed. Or one does and then someone makes a hero run we're not expecting - there are enough within striking distance that, if Brown loses round one, have the game to get to the round needed to overtake him.

Of course, the likely outcome is that Brown will draw Bradley Brooks and fuck everything up. Or a Goffin, Fullwell, Murnan type of player, and get the win. One should put him safe. Let's see. It's going to be an exciting day.

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