Wednesday 29 November 2023

WDF round 1 tips

tl;dr - there are no tips

There's a couple of pretty big issues with trying to give out any sort of betting tips for this round - first is the lack of data that I have on pretty much the entirety of the field, secondly is the extremely short format of just a first to two sets. It's going to make it very hard to produce an appreciable edge, given the huge amount of variance that there is with both things. So what I'm going to do is to give some quick comments on all the rounds and just say whether I think the lines are intuitively right or not.

Marsh/Bialecki - 4/11 Bialecki seems fine.
Turner/Nauman - This might be off. Turner's 6/5 and doesn't feel like an underdog, but I'm not sure I can ever conclusively say he's enough of a favourite.
Brooks/Nilsson - This might be more off with Brooks at 7/4. I'd only really need this to be a coinflip, maybe Dennis a tiny favourite, to go with it. Feels like this should be a play on Jordan if you know anything about him positive.
Prins/Colley - Line as a flip looks OK I guess.
Richardson/Goedl - Maybe 8/11 on James is a little bit of value? Sure feels like he should be a bit of a bigger favourite than that.
Kovacs/Widmayer - Patrik being 4/9 looks to be the right sort of ballpark.
Tata/McDonald - Jonny if I had more sample size to be confident probably ought to be a bit shorter than 4/6, but hard to really quantify.
Porter/Konterman - Feels a bit closer than the market suggests. Can't see a reasonable way that Arjan is 4/11, although I do think he's favoured.
Maendl-Lawrance/Gillet - An effective flip in the market with Liam a slight favourite feels about right.
Kadar/Torbjornsson - Appears very close from what I can see and the market is agreeing.
Blom/Takacs - Moreno's in form but is he really in such form that Gabor should be 4/1? That's a big price in a first to two sets. Surely worth a flier.
Lewis/Bottenberg - Jamie as a small favourite doesn't appear too bad. Maybe should be favoured a touch more but no more than that.
Junghans/Pallett - Dave's a very strong favourite at 4/11. That feels too strong, Thomas isn't a complete walkover.
Pratnemer/Kirwan - Benjamin floating around a two in three favourite looks to be about right.
Gates/Corbett - Leonard is a prohibitive favourite as you would expect.
Allen/Olde Kalter - Is Antony that bad or Dennie that good that Antony is available at 3/1? I find that a tad hard to believe.

So if I was going on anyone, I'd probably be looking at Jordan Brooks, Danny Porter, Gabor Takacs, Thomas Junghans and Antony Allen. All fairly solidly odds against for two horse races over short distances, and I'm not sure in any of them there is ever the difference in quality to justify the prices. No doubt some of them will lose in straight sets only picking up one or two legs, but you'd only really need a couple of these to hit to end up in profit if you took small stabs and only invest the minimum.

No comments:

Post a Comment