Tuesday 14 November 2023

Slam day 4

lol smith

We are clearly not touching Buntz/Chisnall, van Gerwen/Kleermaker or Aspinall/Pietreczko, which leaves us with five games to consider:

Gilding/Muramatsu - Line looks fair enough. Gilding probably just needs to win by as much as the other players have beaten Muramatsu by and he's probably safe. Haruki's showed enough that maybe he nicks this the one in four times required for Andrew to be a clear no play.

Heta/Greaves - Straight match up for the second spot. Heta's 2/5, implying around a 70/30 game. Heta would be about that much of a favourite against someone like Darren Webster as an example. Is Greaves at that sort of standard? I want to say probably not yet, could get up there though and it's not that much of a differential.

Noppert/Dolan - Danny probably just needs to not shit the bed to get through, whereas Dolan kind of needs to win and then likely get a bit of help, unless he can get a clear win. Market's giving it a bit more than 60/40 in favour of Noppert, I'm thinking it might be a slight bit tighter than that, but the danger is that they play after Gilding plays, and we could be in a situation where if something weird happens Dolan might know he only needs something like three legs to be safe. I'm not going to push what is only a slight edge regardless in these circumstances.

Cross/Sherrock - I mean Rob should be really comfortable here, but we thought that about Kleermaker as well, at 2/9 there's enough oddness that might happen that not looking at this one seems automatic.

Wright/Bunting - Final straight shootout for the group advance, market has it evens each way, we've got Bunting favoured but only by a percent or two, so easy enough no bet.

Full last sixteen look later today.

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