Monday 13 November 2023

Slam day 3

Pretty much worst case scenario yesterday, all four bets losing 5-4, two of which had match darts, missing a combined fifteen darts at double in legs that they lost. Picking off just one of them wouldn't have been too bad, but it is what it is. We are not touching Rock/van Peer or Price/van Veen for obvious reasons, which gives us six games to look at:

Anderson/Lennon - Steve looked OK in game one, but was dragged down to Dirk's level in game two, he's not completely dead but needs a big win and then help from Humphries, Ando similarly needs help from Humphries as well as getting the win. Ando's 1/3 and I see it as 75/25, so let's move on.

Clayton/Dobey - Winner takes all here, looks like Clayton's slightly outplayed Dobey in two games against common opponents, but not by much, I see it as a pure flip, market has neither player odds against, move on.

Ratajski/Girvan - Krzysztof kept things close enough against Smith so that a regulation win against Girvan, who's not looked dreadful but has looked out of his depth, ought to get him into the next round - by my maths a 5-2 would probably force at least a playoff, a 5-1 would make it safe. Hard to really call Krzysztof's edge given the limited data we have on Nathan, but 1/4 with how the two have played doesn't look unfair.

Humphries/van Duijvenbode - Luke's pretty much through already, only two 5-0's going the wrong way would see him out, and it's real hard to consider a bet on Dirk given his post match interviews explaining his injury situation and how far he is off his peak game. 4/11 on Luke seems like it might actually be value but I don't really want to try to evaluate what the line is in this one.

Smith/Wade - Line looks close enough to me, Wade's a touch longer than 6/4 so an implied chance in the high 30% range, I'm seeing low 40%, but even off the floor/TV form for Smith and I think it's an easy ignore.

Searle/Rafferty - Straight heads up game, Searle could do nothing against a great game from Price, while Rafferty got an excellent win against van Veen to give himself a shot. Searle projects about a three in four favourite, the market has it a bit closer, but not really enough that I can consider a bet - although it is the closest thing we have to a bet.

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