Saturday 18 November 2023

Slam semis

Another bit of money dropped with Ando. Played great, off to a fantastic start, just couldn't quite keep it going for long enough. But boy, Luke Humphries looks really, really good. He's odds on to win the whole thing for a reason.

I'm not seeing anything of note for the semis. I've got Cross, who was a bit fortunate in that Heta pretty much went to pieces midway through the third mini session, as slightly more (not even 1%) than a 60/40 favourite against Bunting, who one mini session aside completely shut Buntz out of the game. He's 4/6 so we're not interested. Then we have Humphries against Wade, and I've got Humphries flying in at over 80% chances. That's just how good he is right now. If anything, 3/10 represents slight value but I'll give Wade some credit for finding ways to win and looking better of late, so again it seems a clear no bet. There wasn't even enough edge to consider even before we think that James might be playing a tad better than larger historical stats.

Doubt I get in before the final, but with the markets more or less corresponding with how we see things, it's real unlikely we miss anything of consequence.

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