Tuesday 21 November 2023

PC Finals madness

Bit of a shame that Noppert is out, but understandable. Three days before the final major of the betting season starts (I use the worlds as the starting point), and here's the analysis table:

So what we have here are three columns - the first is a longer sample guide to use the most data possible (I could go back further, but anything from before the UK Open I don't think is overly relevant), then a shorter form guide that's looking at just after the Matchplay to see if there's any major swings that we need to be aware of. The final column is looking at the difference in consistency between the two players on the larger sample - this I'm generally only using as a tiebreaker between whether to fire or not and whether to moderate a bet sizing, rather than attempting to change projections.

So, what bets:

Price/Evans - Maybe I should take a flier on Evans at 5/1 on what is for the first two rounds a short format, but I can't say I like the idea.
Huybrechts/Schindler - 8/13 on Martin seems in the right ballpark about enough, maybe a little long on recent form but easy enough to pass.
Bunting/Mansell - 5/2 on Mickey offers a sliver of value. That said, Stephen's just off the back of a major semi so that confidence may well erode any edge that's worth playing.
van Veen/Landman - 1/4 on van Veen may be pushing it a bit, especially given he was a bit disappointing at the Slam, but Landman's trending the wrong way for sure.
Smith/Williams - Is Smith undervalued here? Perhaps a tad, but despite the trend numbers it feels as if Scott's played a bit better of late and 4/9 is not really the number we're wanting.
Rydz/van Gerwen - We're not touching this one. Callan floating at around 3/1 appears to be correct enough.
Campbell/Slevin - A bit all over the place this one, hard to really call a favourite. Slevin may be picking form back up again (or maybe Matt's dropped off?), but with the market finding it hard to split them, I don't think there's a discernable edge.
de Decker/Vandenbogaerde - This one looks closer in the stats than the market's making out, but with Mario only just slightly longer than 5/4, I'd probably need Mike to be projecting as an underdog in both the samples to fire.

Chisnall/Evans - We've mentioned Lee a couple of times in the past few months and thought we might revisit him as a bet in the future. Well, here we go, 0.1u Evans 4/1, Betfred/Coralbrokes offering that line but I think the generally available 7/2 is enough as well given we're seeing Chizzy only claiming this about the two in three area.
Dobey/van Barneveld - Market concurs with us for the most part in that Chris is better, but not by much, it may overvalue Dobey a tad but with Barney only 6/4 in most places and a tick longer in some random books, we can't really push what only gets close to an edge on current form.
Cross/Menzies - Cameron's up and down for sure, and Rob looked extremely solid this week, but the numbers don't lie and Menzies has great chances in this one, I'll moderate the bet given Rob's really short sample form, but 0.1u Menzies 12/5 looks automatic.
Woodhouse/Whitlock - With Luke floating around the 60% projection range, which might be a touch of an overestimate for consistency reasons, we're not in the slightest bit interested at 8/13, and the corresponding Whitlock pricing probably only reflects a break even punt.
Rock/Rodriguez - 3/10 on Josh appears just about perfect. Looks to be one that should be safe if you're looking for an accumulator, but Rowby's got enough of a puncher's chance that we'll avoid it as a recommended single.
Clemens/Scutt - Connor actually appears to be somewhat respected in the market, coming in at a best price of 6/4. Given we're thinking he should be 5/4 and that might be an overestimate, it looks a neutral play at best.
Clayton/Burton - What is going on with those more recent numbers? The market's pricing this as a 75/25 game, which looks fine for the longer sample, but Clayton's numbers have fallen off a lot in the second half of the year after looking like one of the world's best in the last few months. It wouldn't surprise me if this match appears as one where the play was to take Stephen and it ends up being close, but I'll put enough confidence in the longer data to say that Jonny will be timing things to get it right at the time of year it matters - despite an underwhelming Slam.
Gurney/Zonneveld - Another one with a weird trend, seeing Daryl go from a moderate favourite to a strong one, despite Niels having a couple of good runs late in the season. The market's leaning more towards the form figure than the longer data figure, maybe I should think more about Niels at 5/2 than I actually will do just based on an eye test of Gurney having had a good year, rather than raw data.

Anderson/Beaton - Market appears pretty much spot on to me with it being put at 80/20. Certainly not going to push Ando at 2/9 based on form, as Steve's still got enough about him to maybe play spoiler.
van den Bergh/Williams - Dimi's still valued in the market, but not as much as he was, and his numbers look to be going the wrong way. Jim's only a small underdog in the market with a couple of random places offering 6/5 and a lot just putting him at evens, but this one feels right, 0.1u Williams 11/10.
Wade/O'Connor - Willie's not actually putting up bad numbers against a player that's made quite a few headlines in recent weeks, projections in the low 40% range do surprise me a little. They're not enough to make us want to punt at 8/5 though.
Gilding/Lennon - Couple of players who got some TV reps in the Slam, and Steve is not far off Andrew's level of play at all. However, he still projects as an underdog, and a best price of 11/8 represents only a really small advantage, can't be confident enough about this one to go with it.
Humphries/Lukeman - Luke hype train has got maybe a little bit silly, and Martin coming in at 9/2 appears a little bit disrespectful, but this feels like absolutely the wrong place to be chasing what isn't a big edge in any case.
Szaganski/White - Ian's had a good enough season that he does project as better than Radek, this despite the Pole binking a event recently. Sure, it's closer of late, and I think the line with Ian at 5/6 is more accurate than anything that'd be based off longer form, and not really a play as a result.
Searle/Krcmar - Ryan is the better player, and is getting better of late. Boris isn't bad and could absolutely pull off the upset, but I think with him not even being 5/2 they're giving him correct credit for what he's actually capable of.
Pietreczko/Kist - Christian projecting as a tiny favourite really does surprise me, but he's playing the best he has done since the Lakeside win in my opinion. Ricardo looking a bit off at the Slam is only additional ammunition, I'd take the guy that's outscoring the higher seed at the price that 365 are offering without that, 0.25u Kist 6/4.

Heta/van Dongen - Damon had a nice win last week, but Jules' upturn in form cannot be ignored. Since the Matchplay he's outscoring Heta. It looks like things have finally clicked and the confidence is there, Damon can still pretty easily cock things up on TV, so we'll go normal sizing again at the Ladbrokes price with 0.25u van Dongen 19/10, think the typically available 7/4 is also more than fine for this sizing.
de Sousa/Doets - Market's giving this as a 4/7 against 7/4 line in favour of the Portuguese number one, which looks just about right to me. Kevin's got chances but there is nothing worth gambling here.
Ratajski/Kuivenhoven - Looks like Maik might be trending up slightly in more recent samples, but all it's really doing is taking a price at just north of 2/1 from being at the very best a neutral play, to something without the real edges we need to look at it. Feels like Ratajski's not dropped at all and should be solid enough.
Dolan/Edhouse - Another one where the market's knowledgeable enough to correctly point out that Edhouse isn't a bad player, and they throw him in at around 11/8, or having low 40% chances. That, or they just don't like Brendan. That's more or less how we see it so nothing of interest here.
van Duijvenbode/Wattimena - Not touching this with a bargepole given Dirk's issues. That the market has it as a flip might be a bit of an overreaction, but it's so hard to quantify just how far Dirk is off.
Smith/Veenstra - Richard's good, we all know that, maybe he's not quite as good as he was earlier in the season, and maybe Michael's ramping things up for the big TV events, but he did botch the Slam defense, and we do have a good price on Richard. Coralbrokes are offering just about enough to have a small nibble, 0.1u Veenstra 5/2, but I doubt I go any shorter than that, maybe 9/4 is still just about worth the shot.
Joyce/Klose - Ryan's been one of the success stories of this tour this year, while Daniel's had his moments as well and is definitely live here, but as 13/8 appears to be a correct representation of just how live I think he is, I can't say to bet on this one.
Cullen/Hughes - Joe appears to have fallen a touch off the radar, while Hughes, after a final in the very first weekend, has been quiet as well. Hughes looks a touch undervalued, but it's only just a touch, we can't even get 2/1 which is probably what I would need to start thinking about going against the Rockstar as he warms up for the worlds.

So we have six plays, all underdog shots, two of them seeming like clearer plays than others. Expect me to be back Friday night for the last 32, but likely not getting any tips out before the last 16 because football - although if I can find a quiet pub after the game and can do a lot of the groundwork in advance, then who knows.

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