Saturday 25 November 2023

Round 2 bets

This'll be fast and furious:

Heta/Doets - 5/2 is tempting on Kevin but I'd need a touch more I think.
Anderson/van den Bergh - Close. There's a couple of rando books that have 1/2 on Ando which I'd probably take, but the best a reputable book is doing is 4/9 which isn't quite there.
Rock/Clemens - Line looks just about right.
Kuivenhoven/Dolan - Market has Dolan as having about a 55/45 edge, it's in the right ballpark.
Campbell/Vandenbogaerde - Betfred can't separate the two, I think Mario's a bit better than that, so will take the small shot, 0.1u Vandenbogaerde 10/11.
Cross/Woodhouse - Market's giving Luke just less than a one in three chance, that looks perfect to me.
Searle/Pietreczko - Searle might be slightly better than what the market is indicating, but not by much.
Bunting/van Veen - I think Gian's got a little bit of an edge here, as such I'd probably flip the line so that Bunting was evens and not Gian, and have the Dutchman odds on, but that's about as far as it's off. Don't mind a micro play on Gian at evens to be honest but betting against Stephen without a solid edge seems a bad idea right now.
Price/Huybrechts - Do I really want to take a flier at 5/1? I'm inclined to just say no, at 6/1 I'd probably say what the hell, I may watch the exchange and see if money comes in on Price late and get on then, especially if Kim nicks the bull and there isn't enough of a reaction to it.
Smith/van Gerwen - 0.1u Smith 9/5, think we're back at a stage where laying MvG is simply correct most of the time, Ross is playing exceptionally well and this is a lot closer to a flip than the market suggests.
Chisnall/Dobey - Can't separate the two. The market can't really either, they've got Dobey 11/10 but I'd probably need 11/8 one way or another before I'd recommend a play.
Humphries/Szaganski - Unlike the Huybrechts game, 5/1 here isn't unfair, I'd put it maybe 4/1, but Radek weren't great yesterday so there's nothing to see here.
Clayton/Zonneveld - Niels probably has slightly better chances than the market is indicating, but I still would only put a fair line at 2/1, so 12/5 is neither here nor there.
Joyce/Cullen - I've got this as close to evens. Ryan's not been playing bad, Joe's had a bit of an anonymous 2023. If Joyce was a bit closer to the inverse of the 4/6 that Cullen is at a best price, I'd probably go with it, but nobody's offering sufficient deviation to do so.
Wattimena/Veenstra - Probably not the game people thought we'd see here when the draw was out, Richard's a little bit better and can't disagree with the odds set.
Wade/Lennon - I think I take a flyer on Steve here, 0.1u Lennon 9/4 on BetVictor is the best I can see, but there's plenty with 11/5, and knowing Steve is underrated and well into the 40% chances, I'd probably take up to 2/1, maybe 15/8. but no shorter.

So three bets, some other close ones. I might get on before round three, but don't count on it.

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