Sunday 12 November 2023

Slam day 2 evening session

Afternoon session just done, everything into the master computer, sadly the results mean we've got three dead rubber games already in the final sets which is going to severely limit the amount of action we might be able to get on, but it's the natural result of an absurdly silly group stage format (although that's probably the fourth silliest thing with how the Slam is organised, behind the huge number of spots given to the Pro Tour qualifier, the quarter final rematch potential which fixes things so that bookies could price up "to win quarter" markets but they don't, and the semis/finals on the same day thing) and we can't do much about it.

Looking at this evening, I'd have been looking at Lennon in the first instance against van Duijvenbode, but he's too short already at 6/4 and Dirk's of no interest either. Wade against Girvan being priced as a 75/25 matchup seems absolutely fine. Wright/Chisnall suddenly became a lot more important after yesterday, Chizzy being priced as a small favourite looks perfectly correct. Kleermaker against Sherrock is the most interesting one, I'm not reading the slightest thing into "zomg sherrock 92 average" bullshit, that's severely inflated due to MvG only allowing her one dart at double. BetVictor think this will somehow be close, I don't, 0.25u Kleermaker 4/6 on BetVictor is the play, anything longer than 1/2 looks absolutely fine. Bunting against Buntz is one where I think there's maybe a slight overreaction to Stowe's game yesterday, but not slight enough to bet against him, he's clearly got enough game to have at least a 25% chance, so Bunting at 2/5 isn't really that interesting. van Gerwen against Cross I think is another one that's mispriced, I find it really hard to separate the two, van Gerwen's fractionally better and if he plays like last night it's going to be tough for Rob, but VC offer us another decent price, 0.1u Cross 7/4. Only not going a quarter unit given the relative performances yesterday. Smith/Ratajski is another one that I think looks very, very close, although if Michael is performing better on TV than he is on the floor then maybe we don't see the level of edge we do in the above game which makes it a clearer small bet sizing, 0.1u Ratajski 6/4 is widely available. Finally we have Humphries/Ando, I'm thinking it's a case where Gary's slightly better as opposed to the market saying Humphries is slightly better, but the margins involved each side of 50% are that small that I can't recommend a play.

Back probably later this evening with the Monday matchups.

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