Friday 10 November 2023

Slam day 1 picks

Don't expect day 2 picks until probably Sunday morning as I'm going to the afternoon session tomorrow and will be late back accordingly, let's hop through the first day's lineup:

Heta/Pietreczko - Looks real tight, particularly if you go into shorter samples which make it look 50/50 rather than Heta having a small edge. Not loving 4/5 Heta in the slightest, and 6/5 Pietreczko, while not bad, isn't really a solid enough edge for a player who's still lacking a bit of TV experience.

Gilding/Dolan - Extremely tight, finding it close to impossible to pick a winner. Market appears the same, 11/10 on Brendan if we had to pick someone would probably be how lean, but we don't have to pick anyone.

Searle/van Veen - Should be extremely competitive. Am seeing this very close once more, with van Veen having a small edge, not really getting more than 55% in any sort of sample. Market has him shading it at 5/6 with Searle evens, so will ignore this one from betting angles.

Dobey/Rock - Small edge to Dobey on this one, which looks to grow from the low 50% range to the high 50% range as we get more form based. Which isn't enough to tip in another one where neither player is odds against but Chris is looking the better of the two in the market.

Noppert/Muramatsu - Haruki is going to be tough to call. As detailed in the previous post, his top game is pretty decent, but there's horrific inconsistency which may well end up giving Danny a couple of legs head start, which is extremely dangerous in the shortest format we have in the pro game today. 7/2 I don't think is a horrible price, but I kind of want to see what he does before recommending any play. This might cause us to lose our market if, as I think, he is a bit better than expected and a good showing lets the cat out of the back, but it's a risk I'll take.

Aspinall/Greaves - Beau's going to be even tougher to call. 5/1 is one that might be a touch long, but Nathan's really good, so I'm happy again to pass this one.

Clayton/van Peer - Kind of half tempted by van Peer. He's floating around a one in three shot, but improves to closer to 40% as we get more form based, albeit that might then start to run into form issues for a non card holder. A price approaching 5/2 is maybe a touch harsh, but it's not the slam dunk play I'd have liked it to be. If the market is bullish on Clayton in the warm up then I don't hate a small play on the Challenge Tour winner.

Price/Rafferty - Nathan's in trouble in this one. A price of 5/1 over a decent sample doesn't look unkind at all. As we get more recent and form based, his chances do go up a bit into the low 20% range, but that's still a long shot and not something we really want to be considering.

Wade/Ratajski - James is playing well, but Ratajski looks better to me - hovering in the mid to high 50% mark dependent on samples. As such, this is probably the closest thing we have to a bet so far with most markets giving Krzysztof an underdog status, albeit at 11/10 generally available. I'm going to say no, simply given that Wade looks to be upturning in form with a recent major final run, but this is possibly just me talking myself out of a decent bet.

Cross/Kleermaker - Looks like a standard two in three game for Rob over large samples, ticking slowly upwards towards three in four as we get more form based. 3/10 isn't worth considering, 3/1 on Martijn might have been worth a look if he had a couple of extra percent across the board and the trend was the other way, but he doesn't and it isn't.

Chisnall/Bunting - Good game this one. Chisnall's favoured, but not by much, fluctuating between a 55% favourite and a pure coinflip. He's 4/5, Bunting's 6/5, that's a bunch of no thanks for punting.

van Duijvenbode/Anderson - Gary is correctly favoured here - starting at around 60%, rising to about two in three as we get more form based, which we'd kind of expect given Dirk's best work appeared to be earlier in the year. Sadly the market puts him at 4/7, that's not in the slightest bit interesting, and Dirk's not long enough either, and with a possible minor injury issue that really affected him in Dortmund I think it's hard to quantify exactly what we'd need.

Humphries/Lennon - Steve's a talented player, but Luke is good enough now that this does represent a real gulf in class, I'm seeing Luke up at 70% give or take a percent regardless of sample, 10/3 on Lennon is the better side, but there is no significant edge and it feels like one he wouldn't really capitalise on for some reason.

Wright/Buntz - What level of game Stowe brings is going to be very interesting to see. For now, this one looks like a pretty trivial ignore - Peter's just off the back of a major win, so this looks like bad timing, and 7/2 doesn't feel like it's an overly generous price in the first place.

van Gerwen/Sherrock - Why does this feel like one where we should just empty the clip on MvG at 1/12? I won't, there's enough random things that can happen that makes it just not worth the risk.

Smith/Girvan - Why does this also feel like one where we should just empty the clip on Smith at 1/6? Scoring on the Development Tour is down at 83, while that's deflated a bit due to quality of opponent, this looks like a horrible mismatch. I'll just not bet this one and then regret it later.

So no bets, there's quite a few where we're in a holding pattern while we wait for information on the players we lack data on, and hopefully our suspicions are confirmed before we lose a potential market in games 2/3 - but in general it looks like the markets are correctly valuing most players in this with it being a pretty darned strong field, and with the matches being a bit flippy given the short race distance. Let's see if we get anything for Sunday.

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