Saturday 25 November 2023

Quarters bets

0.25u Joyce 13/8, don't get this one. Seems off. Since the UK Open it's a flip. Since the Matchplay Joyce has been outscoring Heta and rates to win 55% of the time. Vamos.

Nothing on Wade/Humphries. Luke's 1/3 but he is honestly that much better.

Also not touching Clemens against Woodhouse. Gabriel's slightly better, so with the market reflecting that, I'm not touching it - if anything the play is on Woodhouse if the average Joe clowns look at Clemens winning 10-1 and move the line massively, but I doubt that happens.

Do I fire on Bunting? It's very tempting, this looks to me no worse than 40/60. That said, Bunting was mediocre in the last 16 game albeit untouchable in the last 32 game - counterpoint would be that van Gerwen was godmoding against Ross Smith. Everything says to me bet Bunting, but at the same time, something at the back of my head says to me that MvG will turn it on given he's not won a major title this year and he'll see this as an enormous opportunity to do so. I'll probably have a minor stab privately, but not recommend a play. Feels like van Gerwen has top gear available if he needs it, he will need it, and he will get into it.

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