Sunday 28 April 2024

Austria quarters

Two good wins there, Rock lost though despite having very good situations in legs 8/9 to go 5-4 up, oh well. Very quickly on the quarters - the first two games are priced very close to evens, Littler's at about 70% chances in the market and van Gerwen 65%. That points to these plays:

0.25u van Veen 10/11, Cullen's had an alright tournament, but Gian's possibly been better, and projects about 62%, or 10% more than the line implies. Even if you think that I'm undervaluing Cullen, I don't see how it can be by so much that this isn't a bad play.
0.1u Smith 15/8, their winning averages in the sample I am using are separated by less than a tenth of a point. Smith's about a point and a half below on losing average, but whichever way you look at it, this one is a lot closer than the market suggests and while the projections say it's a flip, if you move van Gerwen up 5% or even 10% on account of thinking I'm overrating Ross, it's still a bet.

Schindler and Bunting I can't separate so line is alright. Littler I've got smack bang in the middle of 70% and 75%, so 2/5 looks fair enough. 

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