Sunday 14 April 2024

ET3 round 3

This is real quick as I'm late up this morning:

Veenstra/Schindler - Market may be finally taking notice of Schindler. I'm seeing it about a one in three shot for Veenstra, 13/8 clearly is not of interest, Schindler being slightly longer than 1/2 isn't bad but there's not the edge there.

Aspinall/Noppert - Looks about a 60/40 in the favour of the Asp for me, looked really good yesterday, 4/5 is pretty close to being worth a play but it's not quite there for me and I don't think it ever gets any longer than that.

Heta/Searle - Kind of a similar spot where we don't quite have the edge, but it's close. I'm seeing Ryan as just short of a 55% favourite, we can get even money, going with it isn't bad but again, I'd want slightly more to recommend a play officially.

Clemens/Dobey - Dobey 60/40 for me, so we're again in the ballpark where we can consider looking at Clemens. 7/4 is not a bad bet, but there's not quite enough there for the third game running, and that's without considering just how fantastic Chris played today.

Humphries/Bunting - Stephen's certainly a live dog here. Luke's not even projecting to win this two out of three, I've got the Bullet as fractionally over 35%. That said Humphries is 1/2 so with vig it's a clear move on quickly spot.

Cross/Edhouse - Rob's the better player here, around 75/25, and he is priced at 1/3. Ritchie's doing OK of late and it was a fantastic kill to win, but the market does look to have his value correct right now.

Price/Pietreczko - Same price as the above with Gerwyn being 1/3. I think this could even be a tick shorter, I'm getting Price as a touch closer to 80% than 20%, but that's not even as good a spot as the Aspinall/Searle thoughts, chuck in the crowd and I can ignore this one easily enough.

Menzies/Smith - Pure coinflip for me. Cammy needed to ride his luck slightly, but got there. Ross was generally pretty solid on the legs he won (where O'Connor averaged over a ton), but was mediocre on the five legs Willie won, a really, really slow start to go 4-1 down. I think we can go small here, 0.1u Menzies 11/8, it's a couple of extra percent which I think is enough to open the wallet and try to repeat what we had yesterday.

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