Friday 12 April 2024

ET3 round 1 bets

van der Wal/Edhouse - Think this is good enough to be worth a play, 0.25u Edhouse 4/9, Ritchie's in good form and Jitse hasn't done a great deal this year, this looks to me to be at least 75/25 and as such 4/9 is a take.

Gotthardt/Dolan - No play, maybe there's some angle here as Brendan's shorter than 1/3 and Kai has shown enough of late to make me think that he's a live dog, but I'd want a bit more before I'd take a stab.

Unterbuchner/Woodhouse - Same sort of prices here, think this one is closer as I'm thinking Michael's probably a touch more likely to win than Kai is, but still not confident enough against a decent opponent to play it.

Masek/van den Bergh - I mean there's a couple of places that are offering 1/8 which surely isn't that bad?

Gurney/Klingelhoefer - Not really interested in this one. The qualifier is not good and Gurney's 1/14 at best.

Veenstra/Gilding - I think they've got who has the tiny edge the wrong way round, but as both are so tiny we only have a tiny edge, and we don't play tiny edges.

Rydz/Evans - 0.1u Evans 7/4, I took better than 2.8 on the exchanges yesterday immediately on seeing the draw, but he is certainly live enough against in fairness a dangerous but inconsistent opponent.

O'Connor/King - Looks to be round about the right line. Mervyn's maybe a touch undervalued which is likely just the market not quite getting to pace with both players' relative form this season, but it's only by a tick so nothing worth punting here.

de Sousa/Dekker - Cor's half tempting here. Against an opponent who's not been outstanding when you're getting close to 4/1 and the underdog has shown a little bit of recent form is a formula that works sometimes, but I'd ideally want 9/2, maybe 5/1 before I go with it.

Dobey/Slevin - Chris is pretty short in the market as expected, perhaps he could be a bit shorter even compared to what he is, but it'd be a pretty slim bit of value that we'd be pushing and I wouldn't even be certain it's there in the first place.

Dueckers/Schindler - Martin's big odds on, that seems fine.

de Decker/Wade - Market can barely separate the two, but they do correctly have Mike as being the favourite. 5/6 would be kind of a marginal play, if you're aggressive then I don't hate it, I would probably want 10/11 before I actually recommend a play but I don't think I'll ever see it and if anything the exchanges are bullish on de Decker.

Menzies/Whitlock - 0.25u Menzies 8/13, took even better than this on the exchange yesterday, 4/7 also looks more than OK for this one, that's just a case of how much better Cameron is right now.

van Veen/van Barneveld - Line seems near enough to me. Gian's better, but he's not that much better, this is pretty similar to the de Decker game where if you have more risk tolerance than me you can push 4/5, but I won't officially recommend the play.

Clemens/Wright - 0.1u Clemens 11/10, there's a couple of places which are offering this price including Hills which I think is enough to make a pushy small stab. The extra couple of percent compared to van Veen or de Decker, plus the intangibles of Wright having to make an awkward trip (having been to Riesa I would not want to get from Birmingham to Riesa in under 24 hours) and Clemens being at home gives me enough confidence to play it.

Bates/Aspinall - Half tempted with Owen, 3/1 I don't think is awful and I wouldn't disagree with anyone that says go for it, I just don't know where his confidence is at really.

So four plays, good luck everyone.

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