Thursday 18 April 2024

Ultra rapid ET4 thoughts

Just going to look at the first round for now:

Rydz/Sparidaans - Decent opportunity for both. Callan's the better player but it's not prohibitive and Jeffrey probably rates to nick this nearly one time in three, so could go either way.
Burton/Barry - Fairly close one. The sort of game Keane needs to be winning to make progress, the sort of game Burton needs to be winning to have real chances of retaining his tour card. Could go either way again, Barry is only a tiny favourite.
Williams/Springer - Not seen Niko in a while. Pretty much a whole year at any reasonable level. He has shown flashes in the past and Scott won't have it all his own way you feel, but Williams ought to be favoured.
Gilding/Dolan - Two players who are in the category in the previous post they wouldn't want to be, so prove me wrong gents. Dolan's ever so marginally better but not even 55/45, it is slightly more of a favourite than Keane is a couple of matches prior though.
Woodhouse/Lukeman - Another competitive game between two players who'd like to push up into the top 32, although Lukeman seems a fair bit further off right now. Real coinflip here.
Engstrom/Cullen - Joe won't hate this draw, been a minute since we've seen Johan play, he's not awful but even if Cullen isn't at his best it's hard to say that he's going to have much trouble here.
Zonneveld/Perez - Niels is a late call up and Christian is making a debut on this stage, and it's Perez who is probably the underdog here, Niels approaching a 70% win chance as he looks to solidify a top 64 place after a decent 2023.
de Sousa/Gurney - Two players on the periphery of the top 32 here, you can see from the previous post that we're liking Daryl's game a fair bit more at present, but in this clash of major champions the projections are having a real hard time separating them in the slightest.

Edhouse/Wade - James is always a tough opponent but Edhouse is in a rich vein of form and won't be fearing anyone, and is showing enough that Wade is favoured but only by a couple of percentage points, so a real competitive game to open the evening session.
Bunting/Grbavac - Stephen ought to be just fine here, Romeo's had a few cameos and could be a real useful World Cup partner, but his standard is way off Bunting's and it's hard to see Grbavac grabbing more than a leg or two if we're being realistic.
Roetzsch/van Barneveld - Another game featuring someone who's off to a good start in the Challenge Tour, Franz actually being a touch higher in the rankings than Romeo is, but this is a tough draw with Barney having got somewhat of the winning bug back, and the veteran ought to be solidly favoured here.
Dobey/White - Ian's the second of two late replacements, and while he's playing better is still going to find it tough against one of the toughest draws he could have got, Dobey being in the hunt for a first title at this level and with a great second round draw, Ian is just the wrong side of 25% in a match up that projects a bit more one sided than I thought it would.
Merk/Littler - Welcome to the European Tour Arno!
Schindler/van Veen - This one should be a real fun one that we could be seeing at levels much higher than this for the next decade or two, and such is the level that Schindi is at, coupled with Gian not being quite so red hot as he was six months ago, the newest winner at this level is actually favoured 55/45, which surprises me a little.
Wright/Mansell - Peter could have got worse draws, but so could Mickey, there's probably at least a dozen players that Mansell could arguably say he'd have preferred not to draw as opposed to Wright. Mansell is a dog, but he's not even a 45/55 dog, he's really playing just fine and it highlights how Wright's game, while not in the slightest a secret, is not where it was.
Clemens/Eidams - Home nation derby to finish things off, Gabriel could do with a good win here to spark a bit of momentum with a winnable seed up afterwards, Rene's always been a bit hit and miss and didn't really do anything outstanding in the quali (then again, the only player that did something notable more than once was Horvat, who isn't even here), so Clemens ought to be just fine.

Bets probably in the morning.

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