Friday 19 April 2024

ET4 bets

Rydz/Sparidaans - line looks fine.
Burton/Barry - line might be favouring Barry too much but only fractionally.
Williams/Springer - if Niko had shown us something recently I might have had a flier, but lack of recent data makes it hard to be confident about his level of play.
Gilding/Dolan - line seems accurate enough.
Woodhouse/Lukeman - line's in close enough of a ballpark, if Woodhouse drifted a tick or two we might go for a small stab but that seems unlikely to happen.
Engstrom/Cullen - 15/2 seems like a big number, might be a bit too big, wouldn't hate the tiniest of tiny stabs at it.
Zonneveld/Perez - market might be underestimating Zonneveld, but it's only marginal at best.
de Sousa/Gurney - might be the closest we have to a bet here. While the projections say it's a coinflip, I get the sense Daryl is playing better. As such, while 11/8 on Jose might be at worst neutral EV, I won't recommend it officially.
Edhouse/Wade - market's caught up to Ritchie and we can only get 13/10. That's just not enough.
Bunting/Grbavac - 0.5u Bunting 1/10 on 365, this is long odds on but I really do not see how Romeo can even get close in this one.
Roetzsch/van Barneveld - I guess the line is close enough to correct. I like Franz's game but would need a bit more than 9/2 against someone with a recent Pro Tour title to think about it.
Dobey/White - Chris might be ever so slightly undervalued here, but we're only talking about him being 4/11 when he should be maybe 1/3, 3/10 or there abouts, not enough confidence to chase that sort of edge.
Merk/Littler - LOL.
Schindler/van Veen - Martin's 4/5 which represents exactly the 55% we see him having, next.
Wright/Mansell - maybe there's the tiniest of value on Mickey. 11/8 isn't a bad play but I'd probably need 6/4 to open up with a tenth of a unit. And after Wright dropped a 70-something average yesterday, I hardly see the public money flying in on him.
Clemens/Eidams - hard to tell on this one really. Best guess would be that 4/1 is being slightly harsh on Eidams, but not truly out of line so I'll ignore this.

So nothing really of interest, understandable if you don't want to invest heavy in getting a 10% return in the only one we suggest.

No comments:

Post a Comment